FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Charoen Pokphand Indonesia:  FY24 Results – In line core net profit; headline net profit beat ours and consensus’ est. (CPIN.IJ Rp 4,500; BUY TP Rp 6,800)

• Despite the high effective tax rate in 4Q24, CPIN reported a net profit of Rp1.3tr (+114% qoq), above ours (107%) and consensus (115%).
• The robust earnings were driven by margin expansion across all business segments, especially the turnover in livebird business.
• We raised FY25-26F est. by 9-16%. Maintain Buy with a higher TP of Rp6,800 as we believe the current -2SD valuation is unjustified. 

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Maintained the BI Rate at 5.75% Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained the BI Rate at 5.75%, reaffirming concerns over global uncertainty. However, it adjusted its stance on domestic economic slowdown, using language that lean toward economic stability. We continue to expect two more rate cuts in 2025, bringing the year-end BI Rate to 5.25%, given deteriorating domestic conditions, which should be addressed through both monetary easing and fiscal expansion. (Bank Indonesia, BRIDS)   The Fed Maintained FFR at the 4.25%–4.50% The Fed maintained FFR at the 4.25%–4.50% during its March meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent approach moving forward. While price stability is close, Chair Powell stated that tariff may delay the progress this year, necessitating a cautious stance. Notably, the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) adjusted growth forecasts downward, with modest upward changes to unemployment and inflation projections. (Federal Reserve)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 19, 2025

Mining Royalty Hike Could be Implemented Before Eid

Director General of MEMR, Tri Winarno, mentioned that the implementation of the latest royalty changes could be as soon as the end of month before Eid. Currently, the regulation's draft has been submitted to the state secretariat. (Antara News Gorontalo)

 

Tech: Komdigi to Finalize AI Regulation by 2025

Komdigi has confirmed that regulations on the use and ethics of artificial intelligence (AI) will be finalized by 2025. Initially, Komdigi aimed to complete the AI regulations by April 2025. Deputy Minister of Communication and Digital, Nezar Patria, stated that the ministry is targeting the draft regulation to be completed by the third quarter of 2025. This effort is being made to ensure that everyone understands and feels a sense of ownership over the regulation, allowing for collective adoption and implementation. (Bisnis)

 

CORPORATE

AADI Shares Acquired by Boy Thohir and Trinugraha Thohir (TNT)

Boy Thohir and his family-owned company, PT Trinugraha Thohir (TNT), have acquired 7.3mn shares of PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI). Boy Thohir personally purchased 3.65mn shares at prices ranging from Rp6,625 to Rp6,900 per share for investment purposes, with direct ownership status. Following this transaction, his stake in AADI increased 5.78% to 5.83%. (Kontan)

 

EMTK Acquires 379.2mn SCMA Shares for Rp74.8bn

EMTK has again acquired 379.2mn shares of SCMA. The company completed the purchase of 379,257,500 SCMA shares, equivalent to a 0.51% stake, on March 6, 7, and 18, 2025. Specifically, EMTK bought 50.3mn shares at Rp205 per share on March 6, followed by the purchase of 28.2mn shares at Rp209/share on March 7. The largest acquisition occurred on March 18, with EMTK purchasing 300.7mn shares at Rp195/share. In total, EMTK spent Rp74.8bn on these transactions. Following this acquisition, EMTK’s ownership in SCMA increased to 63.33%, up from its previous holding of 62.82%. (Bisnis, IDX)

 

ERAA Restructures Board and Evaluates Share Buyback

ERAA's EGM on March 19 approved board restructuring, appointing Alexander Halim Kusuma as President Commissioner and Patrick Adhiatmadja as Director. The CEO said the new structure boosts competitiveness and innovation. (Kontan)

Meanwhile, ERAA is evaluating a share buyback after OJK allowed buybacks without shareholder approval amid market volatility. (Bisnis)

 

Freeport Receives Export Approval for 1.4mn wmt of Copper Concentrate

The Ministry of Trade has issued an export approval letter for PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) to export 1.4mn wet metric tons (wmt) of copper concentrate, valid for six months from the date the export recommendation was issued on March 17, 2025. This means that PTFI can export until September 2025. According to the Ministry of Trade, the export approval for copper concentrate was granted due to force majeure for PT Freeport Indonesia, based on the export recommendation issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on March 17, 2025. (Kontan)

 

GOTO Clarifies No Merger Agreement with Grab

GOTO reiterated there is no merger agreement with Grab Holdings Ltd. In its public disclosure on March 19, 2025, GOTO confirmed that there have been no changes in information since its previous disclosure on February 4, 2025, which stated that no agreement had been made regarding the reported transaction. The company and its management remain focused on business operations and performance achievements. (IDX)

 

JSMR Prepares for 2025 Eid Travel Surge

JSMR projects 2.18mn vehicles will leave Jakarta during the Eid travel period, up 1.1% from 2024, with peak traffic on 28th Mar25. Return traffic is expected to reach 2.29mn vehicles, slightly down by 0.5%. The busiest toll gates will be Cikampek, Kalihurip, Ciawi, and Cikupa. Peak travel days may see a 50-55% rise in traffic from normal days, though slightly lower than last year. (Kontan)

 

Toyota Indonesia Targets 3mn Exported Cars in 2025

TMMIN projects total car exports to reach 3mn units in 2025, with hybrid models like Kijang Innova Zenix and Yaris Cross HEV as key drivers. Currently at 2.8mn units, the company aims to add 200,000 more. In 2024, Astra Toyota and Daihatsu exported 276,865 units, down 6.2% from 2023. (Bisnis)