FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

 

IDEA OF THE DAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

Banks: Liquidity Battle between Fiscal and Monetary Policy (NEUTRAL)

·         BI announced another 25bps cut on policy rate to 5.0%, which could help lower banks’ CoF, especially if LPS also cut its rate in Sep25.

·         Higher FY26 tax revenues target could pose risks of lower loan demand, higher CoF, and higher NPL, subject to magnitude and timing difference.

·         We retain Neutral rating on the sector with BBCA as our LT stock pick as we remain cautious on asset quality.   

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here

 

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ACES (Hold, TP Rp520) Jul25 SSSG: Still Soft but Improving

·         AZKO’s reported indicative sales of Rp735bn in Jul25 (+5.6% mom, +3.5% yoy), bringing 7M25 sales to Rp4.9tr (+3.5% yoy), or 56.2% to our estimates (vs 7M24: 56.1%, inline).

·         Monthly SSSG improved to -2.7% in Jul25 (vs Jun25: -4.8%, May25: -4.6%), with 7M25 SSSG at -2.9%.

·         All regions showed MoM improvement with Jakarta’s SSSG at -2.5% yoy, Java ex-Jakarta at -3.6% yoy, and ex-Java at -1.6% yoy.

·         As of Jul25, AZKO opened 11 new stores including 3 additional stores opened in July (2 in Java ex-Jakarta, 1 ex-Java).

·         We think Jul25 improvement was partly supported by the ongoing Boom Sales. We expect further improvement to come in the upcoming months, given stronger seasonality in 4Q. For now, we maintain our FY25F SSSG target at 1.7% with +5% earnings growth. Currently, ACES trades at 10.6x FY25F, stood below -1SD of its 3Y mean. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

 

Equity Snapshot 21 Agustus 2025 1.png

 

SMGR (Hold, TP Rp2,700): 7M25 Sales Volume In-Line

  • SMGR booked 3.2mn tons in Jul25 sales (-10%yoy, +12%mom), bringing 7M25 volume to 20.5mn tons (-4%yoy). This reflects a 53% run-rate to our FY25F target of ~38.6mn tons, relatively in-line with its historical 7M contribution to FY of 54-55%.
  • National domestic sales volume reached 5.8mn tons in Jul25 (-4%yoy, +18%mom), bringing 7M25 volume to 32.9mn tons (-3%yoy). SMGR's 7M25 volume decline mirrors the market, however its market shares still at a contracted territory of 47.7% vs 49.9% in 7M24, with weaker mom recovery in Jul25 vs. INTP's +21%mom growth.
  • Current price should fairly reflect SMGR's value, with limited short-term re-rating catalysts, as distribution issues causing market share declines will take time to resolve. SMGR’s ROIC/WACC stands at 0.2x, lagging INTP and regional peers (~0.5x), indicating modest balance sheet deployment amid an unattractive industry outlook.
  • We currently have a hold rating on SMGR with our DCF-based TP of Rp2,700. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

 

Equity Snapshot 21 Agustus 2025 2.png

 

 

MARKET NEWS

  

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Cut Its Policy Rate by 25bps to 5.00%

Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25bps to 5.00%, totaling 100 bps YTD and 125 bps over 12 months, signaling a full shift to a pro-growth stance. The move comes despite strong 2Q25 GDP, as loan growth slowed to 7.03% (a 3-year low), while Third-Party Fund growth rose to 7.0% on higher fiscal spending, improving liquidity. BI expects subdued core inflation over the next two years, giving space for more easing. The pace of cuts mirrors past easing cycles, and with weak lending appetite persisting, BI could lower the rate further to 4.75% by year-end to support credit growth. (Bank Indonesia, BRIDS)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update August 20, 2025

 

Equity Snapshot 21 Agustus 2025 3.png

 

Rice Aid Distribution Reaches 96% to Curb Inflation

Bapanas reported that rice aid of 10kg per household has reached 96% realization, benefiting 18.27mn families with a budget of Rp4.9tr. Distributed since July 2025, the program aims to stabilize rice prices as production declines post-harvest and to ease inflationary pressures, with rice noted as a key contributor to June inflation. The government emphasized strict price control at both producer and consumer levels to ensure affordability in line with the HET. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

DOID Cancels Coal Mine Acquisition in Australia

DOID announced the cancellation of its planned acquisition of a 51% stake in the Dawson Complex metallurgical coal mine in Australia after received a termination notice from Peabody Energy. The deal was called off due to the failure to reach an agreement on a Material Adverse Change, coinciding with Peabody’s decision to end its purchase agreement with Anglo American for its steelmaking coal assets. (Kontan)

 

EMTK Increases Stake in SCMA to 66.43%

EMTK strengthened its ownership in SCMA by acquiring 230.73mn shares worth Rp54.52bn at Rp226–248 per share. Following the series of purchases between August 5–15, 2025, EMTK’s stake rose from 66.11% to 66.43%, equivalent to 49.13bn shares, further consolidating its control over SCMA. (Emiten News)

 

PTBA Strengthens Diversification Beyond Coal

PTBA is reinforcing its commitment to expand non-coal businesses through a dual-pillar diversification strategy. The company is focusing on downstream energy and utilities to enhance coal value-added products, while also developing a green business pillar centered on renewable energy initiatives. (Kontan)

 

WIFI: ISB Raises Stake in WIFI to 54.42%

On August 19, 2025, PT Investasi Sukses Bersama (ISB) increased its ownership in WIFI to 54.42% following the acquisition of 10,739,675 shares at Rp3,000 per share. (Kontan)