FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Indofood CBP: Expecting 2H25 Growth Recovery Despite Margin Headwinds (ICBP.IJ Rp 9,475; BUY TP Rp 12,000)

• We remain optimistic on ICBP’s growth outlook in 2H25 in light of prospect of higher Govt spending. Mgmt kept its FY25 guidance unchanged.
• Margin risks remain a concern as some raw mat costs remain elevated, but we see 20-22% EBIT margin target to be achievable from optimized
• We cut our FY25-26F earnings est. by 3.9-8.7% and TP to Rp12,000, but maintain our Buy rating on ICBP’s defensive growth profile & attractive val.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here

 

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

CPIN (Buy, TP Rp6,400) - Concall KTA

• 2Q25 weak performance was mainly driven by lower livebird (LB) selling prices, which dropped to around Rp16.3k/kg from Rp19.1k/kg in 1Q25. Demand weakness post-Lebaran was more significant than in prior years.
• 3Q25 LB price recover to around Rp18.3k/kg—still below break-even but much improved from 2Q25. CPIN noted that HAP enforcement was challenging due to lack of controllability.
• Processed food margin contracted as frozen chicken prices followed LB price trends. Tight competition persisted in CBP, though CPIN *maintained its market leader status.
• Feed costs stayed favorable on corn harvest and lower SBM prices, partly offset by Rupiah depreciation. Feed margin slipped slightly as ASP fell from Rp8.4k/kg in 1Q25 to Rp8.2k/kg in 2Q25, pressured by lower feed costs and weak LB prices.
• Government set Bulog’s corn (KA14%) purchase price at Rp6.5k/kg. CPIN expressed caution, citing Bulog’s poor track record in inventory management.
• SBM sourcing is mainly from Brazil and Argentina due to lower cost vs USA. If forced to buy from USA, feed costs could rise.
• CPIN also heard of a potential wheat import plan via Berdikari. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

 

GOTO (BUY, TP Rp110) – 2Q25 Results: Adj. EBITDA in line with guidance

• GOTO booked a 1H25 net loss of Rp580bn, above our forecast but broadly in line at 49% of cons; Adjusted EBITDA reached Rp820bn, in line with our FY25 estimate and company guidance, with FY25 target maintained at Rp1.4-1.6tr.
• 2Q25 net revenue inched up to Rp4.23tr (+2.3% qoq, +18.3% yoy), driven by strong fintech (+12.4% qoq, +76% yoy), while ODS was flattish at Rp2.9tr (+0.7% qoq). E-commerce fees declined -8% qoq, normalizing after the Lebaran peak in 1Q25.
• Adjusted EBITDA improved to Rp427bn (+8.7% qoq) with margin expanding to 9.9% (+60bps qoq), reflecting improved profitability in both ODS and GTF.

 

Other Highlights:

• GTF loan book grew to Rp6.5tr, on track to reach Rp8tr FY25 target, via ecosystem cross-sell and upsell; recently launched Gopay Pinjam on Tiktok shop adds new distribution channel; asset quality remains stable.
• High-single-digit outlook for ODS; c.50bps qoq take rate compression in 2Q25 reflects targeted pricing to defend share amid heightened mobility competition.
• GOTO focuses on premium product monetization while sustaining mass-market volumes through product-led engagement rather than discounting. (Kafi & Erindra - BRIDS)

INTP (Buy, TP Rp6,200) - 7M25 Sales Volume In-Line

• INTP booked 1.7mn tons in Jul25 sales (-8%yoy, +21%mom), bringing 7M25 volume to 9.7mn tons (-4%yoy). This reflects a 52% run-rate to our FY25F target of ~18.6mn tons, relatively in-line with its historical of 52-53%.
• National domestic sales volume reached 5.8mn tons in Jul25 (+18%mom, -4%yoy), bringing 7M25 volume to 32.9mn tons (-3%yoy). INTP's volume decline mirror the market, despite slightly lower market share of 29.4% (vs. 7M24 29.6%), as mgmt noted several competitors stepped up discounts and introduced more fighting brands in certain areas.
• Company keep pricing and cost discipline as priorities and sees gov't spending ramp-up as key catalysts.
• We view the mom uptick in volume growth as a positive signal of the start of better seasonality in 2H cement demand. We also see the company's focus on cost-discipline as key traits of winning cement players for FY25F.
• We are currently reviewing our DCF-based TP of Rp6,200. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update August 13, 2025

CORPORATE

ADHI Leads FEED Phase for INPEX’s Abadi LNG Project

ADHI has been appointed by INPEX Masela Ltd. to lead the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) for the Abadi Onshore LNG project in the Masela Block, in joint operation with KBR and Samsung E&A. Located in Maluku’s Tanimbar Islands, the project will produce 9.5 million tons of LNG and 35,000 barrels of condensate per day and includes carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. As part of Indonesia’s National Strategic Projects, it aims to boost energy security, reduce emissions, and support local economic growth. (Kontan)

 

Chery Opens First Dealer in Papua to Tap Eastern Indonesia Market

PT Chery Sales Indonesia (CSI) inaugurated its first dealership in Papua, located in Jayapura, marking its 54th outlet nationwide and fourth in Eastern Indonesia. CSI targets the region’s growing SUV demand, supported by an 11.55% rise in Papua’s transportation sector. This expansion aligns with Chery’s goal of operating 80 dealers by end-2025, following strong momentum at GIIAS 2025 with 2,153 vehicle orders, up 113% yoy. (Kontan)

 

EXCL Appoints Former Indosat Executive Sanjay Vaghasia as New Director

XLSmart (EXCL) has appointed Sanjay K. G. A. Vaghasia as Chief Integration Officer following approval from shareholders at EGMS. Sanjay, who previously served as Chief Integration Officer at IOH from 2021 to 2024, brings extensive experience from leadership roles at Ooredoo Maldives, Banglalink Digital Ltd. in Bangladesh, and Ooredoo Myanmar. (Bisnis)

 

ITMG Expands Export Markets to Europe and South Korea

ITMG posted 1H25 revenue of US$919.4mn, down 12.4% yoy, with US$713.9mn from exports, including new markets in South Korea (US$14.5mn) and Europe (US$15.8mn). China remained the largest buyer at US$243.2mn, followed by Japan and India. Despite higher sales volume (+8%) and coal production (+12%), lower ASP (-19% to US$78/ton) cut net profit 29.5% to US$90.9mn. (Bisnis)