FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

BRIDS FIRST TAKE  

• Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Mar25 sales volume declines due to fewer working days; 3M25 was slightly below seasonality (INTP.IJ Rp 5,275; BUY TP Rp 8,500)

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• Pakuwon Jati: 1Q25 Marketing Sales: In-Line with Our Expectations, Below Company’s Target (PWON.IJ Rp 348; BUY TP Rp 640)

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Coal (Neutral) – New Royalty Scheme to Benefit IUPK Holders

·         The government has unveiled the new coal royalty scheme (formalized under Govt regulation PP 18/ 2025), with new rates that are in-line with the previously indicated scheme earlier in Mar25.

·         The potential impact of the new royalty rate will vary among different licenses/ contract holders: 

-       IUPK holders (mines under AADI, BUMI, INDY) will effectively see their royalty rate falling to the applicable rate according to their respective brackets (i.e., from 28% to 19% if HBA is at US$120-140/t).

-       CCoW holders: CCoW holders will effectively see their total taxes payment unchanged since the higher royalty rate (for HBA >= US$90/t) will be offset with the lower levy PHT rate. 

-       IUP holders: IUP holders (PTBA) will effectively see a slight increase in royalty rate when HBA is above US$90/t. 

·         We conservatively estimate a 19% upside for AADI’s FY26 EPS under the new royalty scheme and estimate limited impact in EPS of ITMG and PTBA.

·         We currently have Buy ratings on the coal names: AADI with TP of Rp9,850, ITMG TP Rp27,300 and PTBA TP Rp3,100. (Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

EXCL (Buy, TP:2,800) - Block Trades – Apr 16, 2025

Total Block Transaction Value: Rp9.81tn, with ombined volume: ~3.32bn sharesbroken down as:

·         The Equalisation block – Sinarmas acquires shares from Axiata to reach 34.8% stake (joint control)
Rp7.60tn @ Rp3,189/share

Volume: ~2.38bn shares

Rp2.20tn @ Rp2,350/share

Volume: ~940mn shares

·         The Buyback – EXCL repurchases shares from dissenting shareholders post-merger

Closing price: Rp2,190 (-15.18%) — showing post-merger pressure despite strategic block trades.

Comment: This transaction closely matches the 2.38bn shares (13.1%) that Axiata sold to Sinarmas as part of the merger agreement, allowing both parties to hold 34.8% of EXCL and jointly control the company. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

Metal (Neutral) New Royalty Rate is Officially Ratified Through PP19/2025

• The regulation will take effect on 26th Apr25, 15 days after it was approved on 11th Apr25.
• FeNi and Matte rates were lowered by 1% from the proposed version, which benefits ANTM (FeNi) and INCO (Matte).

Comment:

·         Based on our calculation of metal mining companies under our coverage, the most to least impacted are MBMA (-16.7%) > TINS (-14.6%) > MDKA (-14.5%) > INCO (-9.6%) > ANTM (-4.9%) > NCKL (-1.8%)

·         The impact is milder than our initial expectation: INCO (-23%) > TINS (-20%) > MDKA (20%) > MBMA (-12%) > ANTM (-10%) > NCKL (-4%) as the new rates are only effective for 8 out of 12 months and we have revised our est. post FY24 earnings. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

MTDL (Buy, TP: Rp800) 4Q24 Results – Strong Seasonal Finish

As expected, MTDL posted a solid 4Q:

·         Net profit surged +58.6%qoq / +14.2%yoy to IDR 284bn

·         Revenue hit IDR 7.9tn (+17.1%qoq / +13.3%yoy), driven by year-end order fulfillment and strong Infinix smartphone sales

·         S&C revenue was soft (-0.3%yoy), but a rising share of high-margin services supported profitability

·         Completed Phase 2 warehouse expansion (adds 18k sqm) ensures long-term distribution capacity (5–7year horizon)

FY24 guidance beaten:

• Revenue up 14% (vs. 13% target)
• Net profit up 14% (vs. 8% target)
• ROE maintained at 18%, ~40% div.payout ratio

FY25 target:

• 10% revenue & profit growth, backed by diversified business model and strong execution across both S&C and distribution.
• New JV with FPT (Vietnam) focused on cybersecurity & AI just kicked off in Jan — expected to enhance solution offerings and contribute meaningfully over the medium term.

Valuation:

• MTDL currently trades at 8.9x/8.1x PE 2024-25 based on 10% NP growth in 2025, while historically trading over 10x. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

TINS (Buy, TP: Rp2,300) – Earnings Call KTA

·         Since Tin is exempt from US' tariff list, TINS continues to export to the U.S. (9% in FY24).

·         2025 RKAP prod./sales volume set at 21.5kt. Though the 1Q25 production figure have been lagging behind due to rainy weather, there are also existing inventories from Dec'24 to boost sales.

·         2025 cash cost is targeted at US$20-21k/ton, which was an increase from US$17.8k/ton in FY24 due to the usage of B40 fuel and rising material and spare part costs.

·         Historical dividend payout ratio are around 30%-40%, though mgmt noticed that there might be demand from the gov't to increase payout ratio. (30%=4.7% yield, 40%=6.3% yield, 50%=7.9% yield). (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

Bank Indonesia Estimated Mar25 Retail Sales Growth at 0.5% yoy

Bank Indonesia estimated March 2025 retail sales growth at 0.5% yoy, raising 1Q25 growth to 1% yoy after revisions. Excluding 2020, this was the weakest Ramadhan performance on record, with FnB sales—typically a key driver—up just 1.4%, far below the usual 10% average. (Bank Indonesia)

China’s 1Q25 GDP Grew 5.4%

China’s 1Q25 GDP grew 5.4%, beating expectations but lagged in nominal growth due to deflation. Industrial output rose 7.7% and retail sales 5.9%, signaling stronger consumption, though supply still leads demand. Housing showed early stabilization, but investment and starts remain weak. April trade data hints at slowing momentum as US tariffs weigh where urgent stimulus may be needed. (Bloomberg)

Indonesia Considers Boosting U.S. Wheat Imports to Balance Trade

Apindo suggests increasing U.S. wheat imports to help reduce the trade deficit with the U.S. Aptindo sees no issue with the proposal, noting that Indonesia’s flour industry sources wheat from various countries. While U.S. wheat is of higher quality, it is also more expensive. Flour prices depend on multiple factors, including exchange rates. Strengthening trade ties with the U.S. is seen as possible due to the industry's good relationship with U.S. wheat organizations. (Kontan)

US: Powell Reaffirms Fed’s Commitment to Curb Tariff-Driven Inflation

The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to preventing tariff-driven price spikes from fueling persistent inflation, emphasizing the need to keep long-term expectations anchored. He reiterated the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment and stressed the institution’s legal independence from politics. (Bloomberg)