FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank Negara Indonesia: 3Q25 Earnings: In line; Utilizing the leeway to front-load opex and credit costs (BBNI.IJ Rp4,220; BUY TP Rp4,800)

• BBNI booked 3Q25 net profit of Rp5.0tr, due to higher opex and CoC. 9M25 NP reached Rp20.4tr (-7% yoy), in line with ours and below cons.
• Mgmt cuts FY25 NIM guidance to 3.7% (prev. 3.8%), expects stronger loan growth in FY26, lower CoF, but lending yield pressure to continue.
• Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp4,800 based on GGM with 11.8% 5-year mean CoE, implying an FV PBV of 1.1x.

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Bank Tabungan Negara: 3Q25 Earnings Miss Amid Higher Opex and Credit Costs; Upgrade to Buy on Valuation (BBTN.IJ Rp1,205; BUY TP Rp1,400)

• BBTN booked Rp2.3tr (+11% yoy) net profit in 9M25, below at 68%/69% of our/cons FY25F as CoC tripled offsetting the 100bps higher NIM.
• BBTN posted a weak 3Q25 result, with a net profit of Rp596bn (-26% qoq, +3% yoy), as CoC doubled yoy and quarterly opex hit record high.
• We maintain TP of Rp1,400 and upgrade rating to Buy, as the share price has dropped 7.3% since our latest rating downgrade.

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

China’s FDI Declined 10.4% yoy to CNY573.75bn China's FDI declined 10.4% yoy to CNY573.75bn (US$80.9bn) in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting lingering global economic uncertainty. The services sector attracted the majority of inflows at CNY410.93bn, followed by manufacturing at CNY150.09bn. High-tech industries continued to outperform, securing CNY170.84bn, led by strong gains in e-commerce services (+155.2%) and aerospace manufacturing (+38.7%). Regionally, inflows from Japan, the UAE, the UK, and Switzerland rose sharply, while September FDI rebounded 11.2% yoy. (Trading Economics)   US Annual Inflation Rate Climbed to 3% in Sep25 The U.S. annual inflation rate climbed to 3% in Sep25, the highest since January, from 2.9% in August but slightly below the 3.1% forecast. Energy prices rose 2.8% yoy, driven by higher fuel oil and gasoline costs, while food and transportation inflation eased. Shelter inflation held steady at 3.6%. Core inflation moderated to 3% from 3.1%, undershooting expectations. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.3%, with gasoline up 4.1%, while core CPI increased 0.2%, indicating easing underlying price pressures. (Trading Economics)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update October 24,2025

Indonesian Government Launches Cocoa Replanting Program to Revive Industry

The Indonesian government plans to rejuvenate 248,500 hectares of cocoa plantations by 2027 to address declining production and reduce import dependence. Funded through the state budget and the Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDP), the program aims to replace aging trees, improve productivity, and restore Indonesia’s position as a major global cocoa producer amid ongoing supply shortages and factory closures. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

BELI Reportedly Lays Off Around 400 Employees Across Divisions

BELI has reportedly conducted another round of layoffs affecting around 400 employees across multiple divisions, including technical, commercial, and advertising. The company announced the job cuts during a town hall meeting, with reports indicating that even some VP-level staff were impacted. BELI has yet to release an official statement regarding the layoffs. (TechinAsia)

 

PTBA Seeks New Chinese Partner for DME Project

PTBA is reviving its coal gasification project to produce dimethyl ether (DME) after the exit of its U.S. investor, Air Products & Chemical Inc. The company is currently in discussions with a potential new investor from China while reviewing the project’s feasibility and investment value. PTBA reaffirmed its commitment to support the government’s coal downstreaming program through the DME project in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra. (Kontan)