FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Telkom Indonesia: In line FY24 Earnings; Navigating FMC Transition and Weak Macro with Capex Optimization (TLKM.IJ Rp 2,550; BUY TP Rp 3,900)

• 4Q24 earnings were supported by Enterprise/WIB revenue, despite a weaker EBITDA margin, while mobile posted a promising ARPU uplift.
• Lower-than-expected capex helped manage D&A, keeping FY24 core net profit inline amid TSEL’s FMC transition and a weak macro backdrop.
• We maintain BUY rating with a higher TP of Rp3,900, assuming a lower capex and +5-6% FY25-26F net profit upgrade.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

CTRA (Buy, TP: Rp1,700) - 1Q25 Marketing Sales: In-Line with Our and Company's Target

• CTRA booked marketing sales of Rp3.15tr in 1Q25 (-5% yoy, +35% qoq), relatively in line with our estimates of Rp11.5tr (27% of FY25F) and the company's target of Rp11.0tr (29%).
• The weaker yoy 1Q25 achievement was due to: 1) a high-base in 1Q24 (Rp3.32tr), propelled by the launch of Sampali and Tj.Morawa KDM (Rp1.0tr) and CitraLand Surabaya Dempsey Hill (Rp209bn) with an overall take-up rate from these new launches at 83%; and 2) the fasting month falling entirely in March25.
• However, CTRA still managed to launch several projects successfully in 1Q25 in Bintaro, Serpong and Surabaya, which booked Rp536bn in pre-sales (17% contribution to total 1Q25), with a 54% take-up rate. 1Q25 achievement also higher than the company's historical average run-rate in 1Q, which stands at 24%.
• Product mix was contributed by landed houses (91%), with a pricing mix of Rp1-2bn and Rp2-5bn contributing 29% and 44%, respectively. Location concentration remained ideally positioned at 49% in Greater Jakarta and 25% in Surabaya.
• VAT marketing sales were recorded at Rp1.4tr (contributing 44% to total pre-sales vs. 27% in FY24), due to CTRA's strategy to accelerate construction scheme to maximize number of units qualifying for the VAT incentives.
• All in all, the pre-sales achievement continues to reflect CTRA's strategy to capture the current active demand landscape.
• We maintain our Buy rating on CTRA with a 52% discount to RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700, implying 1.3x FY25F P/BV. The current price reflects an attractive 77% disc. to RNAV vs. its 5-yr. historical avg. of 63%. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh – BRIDS)

DMAS (Buy, TP: Rp190) - Booked Rp466bn in 1Q25 Marketing Sales (In-Line with Our/Co's Guidance)

• DMAS booked marketing sales of Rp466bn in 1Q25 (+8%qoq,-17%yoy), in-line with our and the company's FY25F target of Rp1.90tr/Rp1.81tr (24%/26% achievement).
• Company managed to sell 14.2 ha of industrial land, with our estimated ASP at Rp3.2mn/sqm (+7% from FY24), primarily (86%) still coming from the data center sector.
• Company continues to improve access to its estate through additional new access from Japek Selatan II Toll Road (KM 31 & 42).
• Our estimates of the existing industrial landbank post 1Q25 results is at 157ha, while company stated upcoming inquiries of its industrial land is at 80ha. There were still no further update on its landbanking progress in Southern Cikarang.
• We currently have a Buy rating for DMAS with a TP of Rp190 based on a 72%, disc. to RNAV, while the stock is currently trading at 79% disc. to RNAV. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh – BRIDS)

 

MAPI (Buy, TP: Rp2,000) - FY24 SSSG at 0.1%

• MAPI reported FY24 SSSG of 0.1%, down from 7.1% in FY23. The retail/specialty segment posted SSSG of 3.6%, driven by MAPA at 3.4%. Meanwhile, MAPB (the F&B segment) recorded SSSG of -23.9% during the same period.
• In 4Q24, MAPA posted SSSG of 3% (vs. 4.5% in 3Q24 and 2% in 4Q23), while F&B SSSG remained negative at -15%. As a result, MAPI’s overall SSSG stood at 0% in 4Q24. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MDKA (Buy: TP: Rp2,400) & MBMA (Buy: TP: Rp490) KTA: Insights From Mgmt

On royalty, B40, and GMT:

• SCM and Pani is expecting a c.US$20mn of additional royalty payment, while TB gold is expecting an additional c.US$8-10mn.
• The implementation of B40 is expected to increase c.+20% towards fuel cost due to higher priced biodiesel.
• As for now, mgmt believes MDKA is exempt from GMT as it is not a multinational company

 

MDKA:

• Pani:

• Schedule remains intact with its 1st gold pour in 2026. Initial production of 80-90k Oz in 2026, ramping up to 120-140k Oz in 2027, followed by additional output from CIL in 2028.
• CIL will be constructed in 2 phase, whereby phase 1's capex will be US$600mn and phase 2 at US$300mn, though these numbers are still a rough estimate.

• TB Copper:

• New PFS to be released in 2Q will increase copper reserve from 289mt to c.450mt and resource to c.750mn.
• New PFS will be used as a basis for prospective deal/partnerships.

• TB Gold:

• Mgmt is planning to increase stacking activity in TB gold to move forward gold production in exchange for a shorter mine life. At the moment, the plan mine should last until 2030-2031.

 

• MBMA:

• Mgmt indicated that MBMA's performance will be backloaded in 2H25 due to:

• Minor maintenance in RKEFs in 1H25.
• Slurry pipeline to HPALs will be completed in 2H25.
• AIM to operate in 4Q25.

 

• SCM:
• Limonite price is gradually rising due high transport cost that made it not economically feasible for small-medium miners, increasing demand for the ore as more HPALs operate.
• ASP grew from US$17/wmt in 4Q24 to US$23/wmt in 1Q25.
• SCM's ore req. will grow sharply. Limonite to grow from 14mtpa in 2025 to 30mtpa, while Saprolite to grow from 7mtpa to 10mtpa in 2026, which will be 100% sourced in house.

 

• AIM
• Pyrite and acid plant is completely done. Chloride plant is still commissioning (rotary kiln), which could take 3-6 months. Copper cathode plant is in operational commissioning.

 

• HPAL

• ESG's cash cost currently hovers below US$9k/ton, though it targets a much lower at US$6.5k-8.5k/ton, which can be achieved if it uses slurry pipeline for limonite ore and acid from AIM.
• Despite owning IKIP, MBMA decides to construct SLNC in IMIP as all the supporting infrastructure is in place, making it easier and faster to setup. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

 

PTBA (Buy, TP Rp3,100) – KTA from group meeting with management

Capex:

• Mgmt reiterated capex plan of Rp7.2tr for FY25, comprising of Kramasan project: Rp3.4tr, mining equipment: Rp2.4tr, maintenance capex: Rp1tr.
• Total capex for the Kramasan project is Rp5tr divided into FY24: Rp450bn; FY25: 3.4tr; FY26: remaining. This is aimed at loading facility for the terminal.
• Potential debt funding for the capex of up to 70% (can go higher if majority shareholders ask to sustain 75% dividend payout).
• PTBA aims to reduce portion of Pama’s volume to 50% of total production and add proportion of its in-house contractor (SBS) to reduce dependency

 

1Q25 and operational indication:

• Production may likely be inline/ slightly above target on the back of normal rainfall conditions (inline with 1Q seasonality).
• Cash cost per tonne may see increase (15-20% based on our rough estimation) due to higher fuel cost on the impact of B40 implementation, while impact from lower crude oil price will lag.
• Mining fee outlook: mgmt sees possibility to start negotiations with mining contractors amid decline in coal price.

 

SMRA (Buy, TP: Rp800) 1Q25 Marketing Sales: Below Our Expectation and Company's Target

• SMRA booked marketing sales of Rp877bn in 1Q25 (-49%qoq, +8%yoy), below our estimate of Rp4.54tr (19% of FY25F) and the company's Rp5.0tr target (18%). Almost all key projects recorded below-than-expected achievements, except Serpong and Crown Gading. 1Q25 Achievement also below the company's historical average run-rate in 1Q, which stands at 21%.
• We believe the impact of fewer working days and weaker consumer confidence affected pre-sales achievement.
• Product mix remain dominated by landed houses (76%), despite softening growth at -2%yoy. Shoplots, however, helped contribute to 1Q25 pre-sales (22% of total pre-sales vs. 10% in FY24), propelled by the launch of City Hub Commercial in Serpong and Centeria Square in Bogor, both at the end of Mar25. Payer mix remain dominated by mortgage (45%), followed by cash installment (40%).
• We currently have a Buy rating on SMRA with our 79% disc. to RNAV-based TP of Rp800. We see SMRA's prospect in the longer-term coming from its pricing mix of Rp1-5bn, which caters to entry-level end-user demand for landed houses in Greater Jakarta. The company also boasts a strong recurring revenue franchise, contributing approximately 42% to FY25F revenue. Moreover, SMRA emerges as a value option in the sector, with its current 89% discount to RNAV. Risks: Weaker overall demand in Greater Jakarta. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

European Central Bank Cut Interest Rates to 2.25%

The European Central Bank cut interest rates to 2.25%, the seventh time since June, citing escalating trade tensions as a threat to the region’s recovery. President Lagarde warned that worsening global trade conditions may dampen exports, investment, and consumption, while also tightening financial conditions through deteriorating market sentiment. (Bloomberg)

 

Indonesia Plans to Boost US Imports by up to US$19bn

Indonesia plans to boost U.S. imports by up to US$19bn—including US$10bn in energy—to eliminate its trade surplus and avoid a 32% tariff on exports, which has been paused for 90 days. Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto said Indonesia will shift orders away from other countries to prioritize U.S. goods such as wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, and capital goods. Following meetings with U.S. trade officials, both sides aim to conclude negotiations within 60 days. (Reuters)

 

Indonesia’s National Economic Council Plans to Launch Targeted Stimulus to Mitigate U.S. tariff impacts

Indonesia’s National Economic Council (DEN) plans to launch targeted stimulus to mitigate U.S. tariff impacts, focusing on labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, garments, footwear, furniture, and fisheries—especially shrimp. Vice Chair Mari Elka Pangestu said the government is preparing task forces on employment and deregulation, as U.S. trade negotiations remain uncertain over the next 30–60 days. Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto added that deregulation efforts cover import licensing, tax and customs services, quota rules, and financial sector measures in coordination with OJK and Bank Indonesia. (Bisnis)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 17, 2025

CORPORATE

BTPS Approves Rp34.5 per Share Dividend

BTPN Syariah will distribute a cash dividend of Rp34.5 per share (yield: 3.6%), totaling Rp265.78bn or 25% of 2024 net profit, as part of its 2025 AGM resolutions. (Investor Daily)

 

CLEO Proposes 1:1 Bonus Share Issuance

CLEO plans to issue 12bn bonus shares at a 1:1 ratio, doubling its total shares to 24bn. The Rp240bn issuance, sourced from additional paid-in capital, awaits shareholder approval on 26th May25. (Investor Daily)

 

MAIN Exports Processed Chicken Products to Oman and Singapore

MAIN has carried out its first export of processed chicken products to Oman and its eleventh export to Singapore, with one container shipped to each country. The total export volume was 6 tons per container for each destination. According to MAIN, the total export value to both countries amounted to nearly US$60,000. This year, MAIN is targeting to expand its processed chicken product exports to the United Arab Emirates. (Kontan)

 

MEDC to Issue Rp1tr Bonds

MEDC will issue Rp1tr in bonds as part of its Rp5tr program, targeting professional investors. Proceeds will help repay Rp808.19bn in maturing debt, with any shortfall covered by internal cash. (Emiten News)

 

PTPP Secures Rp6.28tr in New Contracts in 1Q25

PTPP booked Rp6.28tr in new contracts in 1Q25, up 32% yoy. State-owned projects dominated with a 52.1% share, followed by private (28.6%) and government (19.3%) projects. A key contributor was the Rp2.33tr NPEA Section II port project secured in March. (Investor Daily)

 

TLKM Announces Rp3tr Share Buyback Plan

TLKM has announced a share buyback plan for its listed shares on the IDX, with a total value of Rp3tr. Subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming General Meeting, the buyback will take place over a one-year period from May 28, 2025 - May 27, 2026. (IDX)

 

Volvo Stays Confident Amid Premium EV Market Shift

Volvo remains confident in Indonesia's premium car market despite rising competition from Chinese EV brands. After launching the new XC90 plug-in hybrid, Volvo highlighted its clear brand values and focus on sustainability, aiming for full electrification by 2030 and zero emissions by 2040. (Bisnis)