FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

AADI (Buy, TP: Rp9,850) - 2Q25/ 1H25 Results – Slight Beat on Still Resilient Coal ASP

·         2Q25 core profit rose 7% yoy but -38% yoy, bringing 1H25 core profit to US$407mn (-35% yoy) but slightly above our/ consensus forecast (57%/ 54% of FY25F).

·         2Q25 revenue rose 6% qoq (-10% yoy), driven by +7% qoq/ +1% yoy increase in sales volume, while ASP fell slightly (-1% qoq/ -9% yoy) to US$67/t. 1H25 revenue of US$2.4bn (-10% yoy) were inline with our/ consensus forecast (50%/ 52% of FY25F).

·         1H25 production and sales volume were on track (+2% yoy) and inline with our forecast. 

·         1H25 cost fell (COGS/t down -13% yoy) and were below our estimates, reflecting the impact of lower royalty rate and cost control.

·         Overall a decent 1H25 delivery compared to peers, although 3Q may reflect slightly lower margin/ ASP due to the lagging effect on price. (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

ADRO (Buy, TP: Rp2,630) - 2Q25/ 1H25 Results – Miss Due to Weaker ASP and OB Volumes

·         1H25 profit (from continuing operations) and EBITDA fell -39% and -20% yoy respectively and accounted for 33/43% and 36/ 33% of our/ consensus FY25F.

·         ADMR’s coal ASP fell further to US$152/t in 2Q25, bringing 1H25 ASP to US$153/t (13% below our forecast).

·         ADMR’s 1H25 production and sales volumes grew 16% and 11% yoy respectively, and is on trac to achieve our forecast (52/ 49% of FY25F).

·         SIS posted a strong +38% qoq rebound in 2Q25 OB volumes, but still fell short to offset the weak 1Q25 volumes due to high rainfall; 1H25 OB volumes fell -5% yoy, forming only 44% of our FY25F.

·         Overall, a weak set of 1H25 results, with potentially better 2H25 amid recovery in coking coal price to US$180/t, but is likely to remain below our expectation (FY25F ASP of US$176/t). (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

ANTM (Buy, TP: Rp3,000) 2Q25/ 1H25 – earnings beat from gold sales and nickel ore

·         2Q25 core profit rose +20% qoq/ +95% yoy, bringing 1H25 core profit to Rp4.7tr (+203% yoy, forming 72%/ 69% of our/ cons FY25F.

·         2Q25 revenue accelerated +26% qoq/ 126% yoy, driven by strong gold sales volume (+13% qoq/ 76% yoy) and margins, combined with 14% qoq growth in nickel ore, which more than offset the weak FeNi sales.

·         Expect 2H25 earnings to normalize, but FY25F remains likely above ours and consensus current forecast. (Erindra Krisnawan & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBNI (Buy, TP: Rp4,800) - Bank-only Jul25 Results

Jul25 Insight:

·         Modest bottom line: BBNI posted net profit of Rp1.7tr in Jul25 (+3% mom, –11% yoy), pressured by continued NIM compression and elevated costs.

·         NIM stayed below 4%: NIM slipped 6bps mom to 3.8% (–79bps yoy) as CoF stayed steady at 3.1%.

·         Elevated opex pushed CIR higher: Opex surged to Rp2.6tr (+17% mom, +10% yoy), the highest monthly level YTD, mainly from higher salaries and other expenses, pushing CIR to 50.0%.

·         CoC stayed low: CoC held at 0.9% in Jul25 (–22bps mom, –7bps yoy).

·         LDR stayed below 90%: Loans were flat mom, while deposits fell 1%, nudging LDR up to 87% from 86%.

7M25 Insight:

·         Yoy earnings decline: BBNI booked Rp11.9tr net profit in 7M25 (–5% yoy), in line with our forecast (58%) but slightly behind consensus (56%) vs 7M24’s 58%.

·         Negative PPOP performance: PPOP turned negative as opex rose 6% yoy while NII was flat.

·         NIM declined despite stable CoF: CoF stayed at 3.0%, but a 28bps drop in EA yield and lower LDR dragged NIM down 31bps to 3.9%.

·         Slight rise in provisions, CoC maintained at 0.9%: Provisions rose 6% yoy in line with loan growth, keeping CoC flat at 0.9%, below the FY25 target of 1%.

·         Above industry deposit growth: Loan growth of 6% yoy and deposit growth of 19% yoy drove LDR down to 87% (from 97% in 7M24).

Summary:

·         BBNI’s Jul25 results were Neutral, as NIM pressure and rising opex persisted. CoC remained manageable, but earnings momentum stayed weak in line with expectations. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBTN (Buy, TP: Rp1,400) - Bank-only Jul25 Results

Jul25 Insight:

·         Profitability plot twist: After a strong Jun25, net profit plunged to Rp92bn (-82% mom, -9% yoy) as both NIM and CoC turned negative.

·         Negative PPOP offset by negative CoC: PPOP was negative at Rp525bn, but a Rp619bn provision reversal kept the bottom line positive.

·         Tanked asset yield put NIM in the red: EA yield dropped to 4.0% in Jul25, likely from the partial reversal of front-loaded asset yield in Jun25.

·         Slightly better CoF: CoF improved 4bps mom to 4.3%.

·         CoC turned negative: Provision reversal drove CoC to -2.0% in Jul25.

7M25 Insight:

·         Resilient bottom-line growth: BBTN booked Rp1.8tr net profit (+12% yoy), achieving 54% of our and 55% of consensus FY25F forecasts, in line with expectations (7M24: 53%).

·         NIM expanded on front-loaded asset yield: NIM climbed 77bps yoy to 3.7%, with EA yield rising 60bps yoy to 8.0%, supported by accounting changes.

·         More than doubled credit cost: CoC reached 1.4% (+87bps yoy), surpassing management’s initial 1.0–1.1% FY25 target but within revised guidance (~1.5%).

·         Opex growth moderated: Lower Jul25 opex slowed 7M25 opex growth to 5%, cutting CIR by 1,119bps yoy, helped by 35% NII growth.

·         LDR stayed ~94%: Deposits grew 7% yoy vs 6% loan growth, lowering LDR from 95% (7M24) to 94%.

Summary:

·         BBTN’s 7M25 results were weak, with margin reversal eroding Jul25 profitability despite provision reversal support. Still, YTD results stayed in line due to a low base in Jul24. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BRIS (Buy, TP: Rp2,900) Jul25 Results

7M25 Insight:

·         Soft net profit growth: BRIS posted 7M25 net profit of Rp4.2tr (+6% yoy), meeting 53% of our and 51% of consensus FY25F forecasts, below last year’s 56% run-rate.

·         Positive PPOP growth: PPOP rose 9% yoy to Rp7.0tr, supported by 9% NII growth and a solid 30% increase in fee income, despite partially offset by higher opex.

·         NIM slightly declined yoy: NIM eased 7bps yoy to 5.4% as CoF rose 18bps, partly offset by an 11bps improvement in EA yield. NIM was flat vs 5M25.

·         CIR lifted above 50% on higher opex: Opex jumped 18% yoy (mainly promotional and other expenses), driving CIR up to 50.6% (+191bps yoy, +114bps vs 5M25).

·         CoC elevated but within control: CoC stood at 0.9% (+6bps yoy).

·         LDR stayed at 90%: Loans grew 14% yoy, deposits increased 10%, lifting LDR to 90% (vs 86% in 7M24) but slightly down from 91% in 5M25.

Summary:

·         BRIS’s 7M25 results were soft, with higher opex and elevated CoC weighing on earnings despite strong NII and fee income growth. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

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