FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Timah: Trimming FY25-26F estimates post 1Q25 earnings miss (TINS.IJ Rp 1,105; BUY TP Rp 1300)

• 1Q25 net profit was below our estimate at Rp117bn due to unfavorable weather that disrupted production and sales volume.
• We revised down our production/sales and cash cost estimates, which decreased our FY25-26F net profit est. by -44%/46% to Rp903bn/798bn.
• We reiterate our BUY rating on attractive dividend upside but at a lower TP of Rp1,300. Key risks are lower tin prices, sales, and higher cash costs.

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Trimegah Bangun Persada: Lowering FY25-26F est. Post 1Q25 Earnings Miss; Valuation Remains at a Bargain (NCKL.IJ Rp 690; BUY TP Rp 1.300)

• 1Q25 net profit was below our estimate due to lower JV contribution as KPS is in the process of ramping up, and higher minority interest.
• Growth projects remain intact, focusing more on GTS’ initiation in 2H25.
• Reiterate our Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp1,300. Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices and a lower utilization rate.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

HEAL (Buy, TP: Rp1,900) – 1Q25 Earnings Call Key Takeaways

Volume/Intensity Metrics:

• IP Days -5% yoy, -5% qoq; with Rev/IP Days +1% yoy +7% qoq. 
• OP visits -4% yoy, -8% qoq; with Rev/OP Visits +3%yoy +6%  qoq.

 

• Mgmt views the yoy decline as manageable, citing fewer working days and a high base in 1Q24. Notably, non-hospital revenue grew 78% yoy, with its contribution rising 200bps to 4% of total.

 

Payer Mixes and Revenue Contribution:

• Inpatient Days Payer Mix (JKN:Private): 78%:22% vs. FY24 at 78%:22%
• Inpatient Revenue Mix (JKN:Private): 49%:51% vs. Historical at 60%:40%
• Inpatient Volume Growth %yoy (JKN: Private): +3%yoy; -26%yoy.

 

• The increase in private IP revenue mix, despite lower volume, was driven by higher-intensity cases (e.g., pediatric pneumonia requiring ICU stays).
• HEAL sees a gradual decline in JKN volumes due to a tighter verification process. Meanwhile, the positive growth in private patient revenue contribution proves that its revenue intensity strategy is starting to bear fruit, capturing the down-trading market of private patients.

 

FY25 Guidance:

• maintains its guidance of +15%yoy revenue growth to Rp7.7tr, with expected expansion in EBITDA margin, anticipating that 2H25 will drive the catch-up in growth (1Q25: -1%yoy).
• Still no further update from the gov't regarding implementation of KRIS, CoB Managed Care, and iDRG.

 

Our Take:

• The tighter BPJS claims trend is likely to persist through FY25, as uncertainty around the new BPJS tariff remains. This could lead to a higher private patient mix in hospitals—evident in both MIKA and HEAL's 1Q25 operational results.
• This signals a slight shift in the overall demand landscape of healthcare services, where hospitals with a stronger private patient base could outperform, at least until BPJS liquidity and tariff clarity are resolved.
• Maintain pecking order: MIKA → HEAL → SILO. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh – BRIDS)

SIDO (Buy, TP: Rp640) – 1Q25 Results: Below Expectations on Weaker Revenue and Margins

• SIDO’s 1Q25 revenue declined by 25% yoy and 39% qoq, primarily due to sharp drops in the Herbal segment (-42% yoy) and Pharmacy segment (-22% yoy). Meanwhile, the F&B segment posted modest growth of 1.6% yoy.
• The decline in Herbal sales led to a lower gross margin, which fell to 52.3% in 1Q25. Despite efforts to control operating expenses, operating profit dropped 44% yoy.
• Net profit came in at Rp233bn, down 40% yoy and 41% qoq.
• 1Q25 net profit accounted for only 18.5% of our FY25F and consensus estimates—thus falling below expectations. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Annual Inflation Rose to 1.95% in Apr25

Indonesia’s annual inflation rose to 1.95% in Apr25 from 1.01% in March, while monthly inflation slowed to 1.17% from 1.65%. The largest contributor to April’s inflation was the food, beverage, and tobacco group, driven by price increases in ground coffee, cooking oil, bird’s eye chili, and machine-rolled clove cigarettes (SKM). (Bisnis)

 

US Job Growth Holds Steady in Apr25 Despite Policy Uncertainty

US job growth remained solid in Apr25, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 177,000 and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, despite growing uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies. While prior months’ gains were revised lower, the data suggest the labor market is cooling gradually, with businesses not yet pulling back on hiring. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 2, 2025

Coal: DMO Realization Below 20% of Target

As of May 4, 2025, Indonesia’s coal DMO realization stood at 44.5 mt, or only 18.6% of the full year target of 239.7 mt, the highest DMO quota in recent years. This contrasts sharply with 2024, when actual deliveries reached 232.6 mt, exceeding the 181.3 mt target by 128.3%. (Bisnis)

 

OPEC+ to Increase Supply by 411,000 Barrels per Day in June 2025

OPEC+ has agreed to accelerate crude oil production increases for the second consecutive month. The group will raise supply by 411,000 barrels per day in June 2025. This June increase will bring the total production rise from April to June to 960,000 barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 44% of the previously implemented output cuts. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

AUTO to Distribute Rp915.74bn in FY24 Dividends

AUTO will distribute Rp915.74bn in dividends, or Rp190 per share (yield: 8.6%), representing 45% of its Rp2.03tr net profit for 2024. This includes an interim dividend of Rp57 per share paid in Oct24, leaving Rp133 per share to be disbursed. The final dividend schedule begins with a cum date on 8th May25. (Emiten News)

 

KLBF Announces Rp250bn Share Buyback Program

KLBF will buy back shares worth up to Rp250bn from 5th May to 4th Aug25 to stabilize its stock amid market volatility. Funded internally, the move may reduce interest income by an estimated Rp13.75bn. (Kontan)

 

GOTO Announces Leadership Reshuffle Ahead of Shareholders Meeting

GOTO announced the resignations of Thomas Husted (Vice President Director) and Nila Marita (Director) on April 30, followed by Garibaldi Thohir (Commissioner) and Pablo Malay (Director) on May 2, 2025. Thomas will remain with GoTo Financial, while Garibaldi Thohir will focus on his family business. Pablo is set to be nominated as commissioner, subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming AGM, where new board appointments including an Independent Commissioner will also be proposed. (IDX)

 

SIDO to Distribute Rp1.17tr in FY24 Dividends

SIDO will distribute 100% of its 2024 net profit of Rp1.17tr as dividends, or Rp39 per share (yield: 7.0%). This includes an interim dividend of Rp18 per share paid on 20 November 2024, leaving a final dividend of Rp21 per share to be paid (yied: 3.8%). The cum date for the final dividend is set for 14th May25. (Emiten News)

 

SMGR Expands Tuban Plant to Boost Exports

SMGR is completing jetty and production upgrades at its Tuban plant to strengthen exports, especially specialty cement to the U.S., in partnership with Taiheiyo Cement. The move aims to offset domestic oversupply and weak Q1 sales by enhancing global competitiveness. (Kontan)

 

ULTJ to Distribute Rp468bn in FY24 Dividends

ULTJ will distribite Rp467.91bn in dividends, or Rp45 per share (yield: 3.3%), representing 40.6% of its Rp1.13tr net profit for 2024. The remaining Rp685.9bn will be retained without a set allocation. The cum date for regular and negotiated markets is 14th May25, with payment scheduled for 5th Jun25. (Emiten News)