AMRT (Not Rated) - FY24 Result: Below Consensus

FY24 Insights:

·         Revenue: Rp118tr, up 10.5% yoy, in line with consensus estimates.  By segment, food revenue grew by 10.1% yoy while non-food increased by 11.7% yoy (vs 5.7% in FY23).

·         Opex is increasing by 13.2% yoy to Rp22tr, making the ratio of opex to revenue 18.9% (vs 18.5% in FY23).

·         Operating profit decreased by -7.9% yoy, with an operating margin of 3.4% from 4.1% in the previous year.

·         Net profit decreased to -7.5% yoy to Rp3.1tr, 81% to consensus estimates (i.e., below) with a net margin of 2.7% (FY23: 3.2%).

4Q24 Insights:

·         Revenue: Rp30tr, +3.5% qoq/+11.5% yoy.

·         Opex: Rp5.8tr, +3.2% qoq/+17.7% yoy (19.2% to revenue).

·         Net profit: 23.9% qoq/-38.3% yoy, with a net margin of 2.5% (vs 2.1%/4.5% in 3Q24/4Q23).

Comments:

·         We observe that FY24 revenue remains in line with consensus estimates (99%). While net profit increased qoq, it dropped significantly yoy by 38.3% due to a high base in 4Q23 (Rp1.2tr), falling below consensus estimates (81%).  We expect AMRT's performance to improve in 1Q25 due to demand during the festive. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

BBRI (Not Rated) - Feb25 Bank-Only Results

Feb25 Insight:

·         Normalized bottom line: BBRI booked normalized earnings of Rp4.6tr in Feb25 (+129% mom, +42% yoy). Despite appearing spectacular, both comparisons come off a low base due to elevated CoC in prior periods.

·         CoC improved but remained elevated: CoC declined to 3.3% in Feb25, still above the FY25 target of max 3.2%, but improved from 5.6% in Jan25 and 6.7% in Feb24.

·         NIM improved on lower CoF: NIM rose to 6.9% in Feb25 (+27bps mom, +24bps yoy), supported by a drop in CoF to 3.4% (-19bps mom, -29bps yoy).

·         Other operating income remained robust: BBRI booked Rp4.2tr in other operating income, supported by fair value gains on financial assets and strong recovery income.

·         Deposit grew amid lower CoF: Deposits grew 2% mom, while loans rose 1% mom, resulting in a lower LDR of 88% in Feb25 from 89% in Jan25.

2M25 Insight:

·         Lower earnings on one-off lower opex last year: BBRI booked NP of Rp6.6tr in 2M25 (-18% yoy), forming only 11% of consensus FY25F, i.e., below expectations due to a weak Jan25.

·         Higher CIR despite the higher other income: Opex rose 37% yoy, offsetting a 23% yoy increase in other operating income, resulting in a higher CIR of 34.3% vs 26.1% in 2M24, due to a low opex base last year.

·         NIM declined on lower EA yield: NIM fell to 6.7% in 2M25 (-20bps yoy) as EA yield dropped 40bps, likely due to a lower proportion of high-yield Kupedes loans.

·         Flattish CoC: Provision expenses rose 6% yoy, while loans increased 5% yoy, leading to a relatively flat CoC of 4.4% in 2M25, still above the FY25 target due to front-loaded provisioning.

Summary:

·         BBRI’s Feb25 results were Neutral, as CoC remained above target, but strong deposit growth and lower CoF supported NIM. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

INTP (Buy, TP: Rp8,800) – FY24 Result: Above Ours and Cons

·         INTP recorded net profit of Rp2tr in FY24 (+3% yoy, 125% of ours/cons, or above), with 4Q24 net profit expanding by 53% qoq. This was due to strong operating income and higher associated income (+467% yoy) in FY24.

·         Revenue grew by 3% yoy in FY24 (100%/99% from ours/cons, or in line), with 4Q24 revenue grew by 0.6% qoq. Using ASI data, ASP reached Rp969k/t (+2.5% yoy), with 4Q24 ASP at Rp866k/t (+0.3% qoq)

·         GPM improved slightly to 32.7% in FY24 (+10 bps yoy), due to strong GPM in 4Q24 (+350 bps qoq), as packing cost declined by 12% yoy in FY24. However, the main driver of upbeat performance was EBIT, which reached Rp2.4tr in FY24 (+5% yoy, 116%/118% of our/cons, above), with strong 4Q24 EBIT growth of 26% qoq. Opex-to-revenue declined to 20% in FY24 (-10 bps yoy), with 4Q24 opex-to-revenue declined by 20 bps qoq

·         Overall, a surprising strong performance, given pressure on the cement industry last year. INTP will conduct analyst call at Mar 25th, 2pm JKT time. (Richard Jerry, CFA & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MIDI (Buy, TP: Rp540) - FY24 results: Below Consensus Estimates

FY24 results:

·         FY24 revenue grew 14.6% yoy, supported by FY24 SSSG of +9.86% yoy and the addition of 203 stores, driven by Alfamidi (+8.7% yoy)

·         FY24 gross margin improved to 26.3%, supported by higher margins in the non-food products

·         Despite higher opex, FY24 net profit increased by +5.8% yoy to Rp546bn

·         The FY24 net profit accounted for 89% of consensus estimates (below) and 106.5% of our FY24F (above)

4Q24 results:

·         Revenue surged 17.5% yoy, driven by strong revenue growth outside java (+31% yoy) and higher growth in the Fresh Food segment (+42% yoy)

·         A higher contribution from fresh food in 4Q24 put pressure on the 4Q24 gross margin

·         Combined with higher opex from Lawson closure, 4Q24 Net profit decline 37% yoy to Rp80bn

Summary:

·         As the closure of Lawson is expected to be completed in 2025, this should support better earnings growth, given the strong performance of Alfamidi. (Natalia Sutanto & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

Indonesia Money Supply (M2) Rose 5.7% yoy in Feb25

Indonesia Money Supply (M2) rose 5.7% yoy in Feb25, slightly accelerating from Jan's 5.5%, driven by stable loan growth at 9%. MSMEs Loan growth dropped to 2.1% from downwardly revised Jan's 2.5%. (Bank Indonesia)

Moody's Reaffirmed Indonesia Rating at Baa2

Moody's reaffirmed Indonesia rating at Baa2, citing solid domestic growth and a more stable debt outlook compared to peers. However, Moody's noted the increasing challenge of fiscal revenue and the global tariff war that could dampen the economy growth. (Bloomberg Technoz)