FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

GOTO Gojek Tokopedia: FY24 Earnings: Strong 4Q24 EBITDA; Conservative 2025 Guidance Offers Upside (GOTO.IJ Rp 81; BUY TP Rp 110)

·         GOTO posted a strong 4Q24 CM (18.5% qoq) and EBITDA (193% qoq); margins improved on stable recurring costs; S&M dropped 7.3% qoq.

·         Mgmt guides for low-teens growth for ODS, manageable fintech NPLs; cloud migration should offset driver bonus risks. 

·         We view mgmt’s FY25 EBITDA guidance of Rp1.6tr (>Rp1.1tr ODS, ~Rp300bn fintech) as conservative; maintain Buy with an unchanged TP.

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Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison: KTA from Meeting with Management: Accelerating Market Repair and AI-Driven Growth (ISAT.IJ Rp 1,570; BUY TP Rp 3,200)

·         IOH shifts from rotating subs, planning starter pack price hikes to 25-35k/3GB while leveraging its AI-native telco strategy.

·         IOH mgmt. underscores first-mover AI positioning, aiming to expand B2B revenue to $120mn annualized revenue through AI services in FY25.

·         We maintain BUY on ISAT on the outlook of market repair and AI edge; the stock trades at 3.5x 25F EV/EBITDA, ~-2SD of its 5-year range.

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BRIDS FIRST TAKE

·         Summarecon Agung: FY24 Earnings Beat Expectations; Accelerated Handover Drove Strong 4Q24 Earnings

(SMRA.IJ Rp 396; BUY TP Rp 800) To see the full version of this report, please click here

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

BBCA (Buy, TP: Rp11,900) - Feb25 Bank-Only Results

Feb25 Insights:

·         Net profit down mom but higher yoy: BBCA posted a net profit of Rp4.2tr in Feb25 (-10% mom, +12% yoy), in line with NII and PPOP trends.

·         Resilient NIM despite a mom decline: The bank recorded a NIM of 5.7%, flattish yoy but down from 6.2% in Jan25, likely due to a lower EA yield from fewer working days.

·         Positive CoF trend despite tight liquidity: Despite a tight liquidity environment, BBCA managed to slightly reduce its CoF to 1.0% (-8bps mom, -4bps yoy).

·         Higher opex but negligible CoC: In Feb25, opex increased (+15% mom, +5% yoy), but provision expenses were almost negligible, with a CoC of 0.0%.

·         Loans and deposits remained robust: Following unusually strong growth in Jan25, BBCA continued to report solid loan growth of 1% mom (+14% yoy), while deposits were flattish mom (+4% yoy), resulting in an LDR of 81%.

2M25 Insights:

·         Net profit growth remained solid: BBCA posted a net profit of Rp9.0tr in 2M25 (+8% yoy), achieving 15% of both our and consensus FY25 estimates, in line.

·         Resilient NIM: NIM remained robust at 5.9%, as a slightly lower EA yield was offset by a slightly lower CoF and a higher LDR.

·         Improving CIR: Growth in NII (+6%) and other operating income (+10%) was more than enough to offset the higher opex (+4%).

·         Higher provisions but stable CoC: Provision expenses rose 8%, but CoC remained steady at 0.4% as loans grew 14% yoy.

Summary:

·         Overall Performance: We view BBCA’s Feb25 results as neutral, with a resilient NIM and lower CoC offsetting the higher opex. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 2nd week of March 2025 Price Update

·         Live bird price declined to Rp18.8k/kg currently and the average price in the second week of Mar25 decreased to Rp19.4k/kg, down from Rp20.3k/kg the previous week.

·         Day-old chick (DOC) prices remained steady at c. Rp4.7k/chick.

·         Local corn prices slightly increased to Rp5.3k/kg, while the weekly average price has remained unchanged at Rp5.2k/kg since mid-Jan25.

·         Soybean meal (SBM) prices held steady below US$300/t in the second week of Mar25, bringing the Mar25 average price at US$294 (-1% mom, -13% yoy).

·         The price trend of LB in the second week of Mar25 was weaker compared to the previous week which we believe is inline with historical trend. However, overall cost prices remained steady, and we continue to expect solid results for 1Q25 and LB prices rebound in the second half of Ramadan. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

US Consumer Sentiment Fell to 57.9 in Mar25

US consumer sentiment fell to 57.9 in Mar25, the lowest since Nov22, from 64.7 in February, as tariff concerns weighed on households. Inflation expectations surged, with long-term projections rising to 3.9%—the biggest jump since 1993—while short-term expectations hit 4.9%, the highest since 2022. The data signals growing economic uncertainty and inflationary pressure. (Bloomberg)

Trump Signs Stopgap Funding Bill to Keep Government Open

US President Donald Trump signed a stopgap funding bill to keep the government open for the rest of the fiscal year. The move allows Republicans to focus on key border and tax legislation. The White House confirmed the signing while Trump was in Florida. Congress narrowly passed the bill after Senate Democrats helped Republicans clear a procedural hurdle. (Bloomberg)