FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Cement: Lack of Long-Term Catalysts Despite 2H25 Potential Recovery; Reinitiate with Neutral (NEUTRAL)

• 1H25 overall volume to remain subdued at -1%yoy; 2H25 potentially recover (~+1%yoy), mainly driven by gov’t spending acceleration.
• Cost-efficiency remains a key competitive edge, especially amid a price-sensitive market and relatively benign input prices.
• We are Neutral on the sector, as LT catalysts for solving the oversupply problem have yet to be seen. INTP remains our Top Pick.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

SMRA (Buy, TP: Rp800) 1H25 Marketing Sales: In-Line with Our Expectation, Below Company's Target

• SMRA booked marketing sales of Rp1.3tr in 2Q25 (+48% qoq, +42% yoy), bringing 1H25 achievement to Rp2.1tr, in-line with our FY25F estimate of Rp4.1tr (54% of FY25F), yet below the company's Rp5.0tr target (43%).
• 1H25 Achievement also slightly below the company's historical average run-rate 1H run-rate of 44%.
• Product mix remain dominated by landed houses (70%), supported by the launch of Bellefont East Landed Houses in Serpong (Rp3.8-7.5bn/unit), which was launched in Jun2025 and fully sold out with total pre-sales value of Rp250bn (exc.VAT). Payer mix remain dominated by mortgage (46%).
• While the overall 1H25 run-rate is still below company's target, we view the 2Q25 pre-sales recovery as a positive sign, with the market likely pricing-in Rp4-4.5tr pre-sales for FY25F.
• We currently have a Buy rating on SMRA with our 81% disc. to RNAV-based TP of Rp800. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update July 11, 2025

Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy Sets Jul25 Coal Reference Price at US$107.35 per Ton

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) has set the Coal Reference Price (HBA) for the First Period of Jul25 at US$107.35 per ton. This marks an increase of US$8.74, or 8.86%, compared to the Second Period of Jun25, which stood at US$98.61/t. According to MEMR, the HBA for the First Period of Jul25 will serve as the basis for calculating the Coal Benchmark Price (HPB) for the same period, specifically for coal with a calorific value exceeding 6,000 kcal/kg GAR. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

AGRO Completes Buyback with 73% Absorption

AGRO completed its Jun255 share buyback, absorbing 64.16mn shares worth Rp13.9bn, or 73.22% of the Rp20bn budget. The average purchase price stood at Rp217 per share, with total execution cost of Rp859.7mn. (Emiten News)

 

JSMR Offers 20% Toll Discount on 12 Key Routes

JSMR will apply a 20% toll discount across 12 strategic toll roads from 11–13 July 2025. The offer, available for all vehicle types, aims to ease travel costs during the school holiday period and boost economic activity in 2Q25. The discount applies only to electronic payments with valid balance and readable vehicle data. Key routes include Cikampek Utama–Kalikangkung and Kejapanan Utama–Singosari (Trans-Java), as well as Kisaran–Pangkalan Brandan and Sinaksak–Pangkalan Brandan (Trans-Sumatra). (Kontan)

 

WIFI: ISB Increases Stake to 61.19% in WIFI

PT Investasi Sukses Bersama (ISB), a company owned by Hashim Djojohadikusumo, has strengthened its control over WIFI by acquiring an additional 750mn shares. This move boosts ISB’s ownership from 49.7% to 61.2%, equivalent to 1.9bn shares. (Bisnis)