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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK |
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IDEA OF THE DAY |
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BRIDS FIRST TAKE Bank Syariah Indonesia: Second Rights Issue Plan to Support Capital and Lift Free Float (BRIS.IJ Rp1,425; BUY TP Rp3,100) To see the full version of this report, please click here To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here
RESEARCH COMMENTARY AADI (Buy, TP Rp12,400) - Kestrel divestment completed · AADI announced the completion of its Kestrel divestment on 1 Oct 2026. Its subsidiary ACL sold its entire 47.99% stake (720.4mn shares) plus all warrants in Kestrel Coal Group to Yancoal Australia. · Transaction consideration was US$814.12mn before tax, equivalent to 20.69% of AADI's equity. Proceeds after tax were US$734.83mn, while net cash received after SPA adjustments and tax was approximately US$700mn. · The sellers are also entitled to up to US$550mn contingent consideration over five years, subject to met-coal price thresholds, with ACL entitled to its proportional share. · AADI indicated that proceeds would be used for domestic business development, dividends, and partial debt repayment.
Dividend Potential: · Based on ~US$700mn net proceeds o 50% payout: Rp806/sh, implying 7.2% yield at Rp11,175. o 75% payout: Rp1,209/sh, implying 10.8% yield. o 100% payout: Rp1,612/sh, implying 14.4% yield. · This would be on top of AADI's ordinary FY26 dividend (estimated yield of 10.3%), with contingent consideration providing potential additional upside. (Erindra Krisnawan, CFA & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS) MARKET NEWS |
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MACROECONOMY
Indonesia Inflation Accelerates to 3.28% in September as Food Prices Rise
Indonesia’s headline inflation accelerated to 3.28% YoY in September 2026, from 3.19% in the previous month, while core inflation eased to 2.84% YoY from 2.92%. Volatile food inflation reached a three-month high of 5.03% YoY, up from 4.06% in August, reflecting persistent supply disruptions associated with El Niño. Meanwhile, administered-price inflation edged down to 3.25% YoY from 3.32%, despite higher non-subsidized fuel prices in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.30% MoM, accelerating from a 0.21% rise in August. (Statistics Indonesia)
Indonesia Trade Surplus Widens to USD3.55bn as Exports Accelerate
Indonesia’s trade surplus widened to USD3.55 billion in August 2026, from a narrow USD0.12 billion surplus in July. Exports rose 6.72% YoY to USD26.61 billion, accelerating from 6.05% growth in the previous month, mainly supported by a 7.23% increase in non-oil and gas exports to USD25.62 billion. Stronger shipments to the US (+18.44%), China (+14.02%), and ASEAN (+8.97%) supported export performance, while oil and gas exports declined 5.10% to USD0.99 billion. Meanwhile, imports grew 19.09% YoY to USD23.06 billion, moderating from July’s 27.02% increase. Oil and gas imports surged 30.73% to USD3.53 billion, while non-oil and gas imports increased 17.20% to USD19.53 billion. (Statistics Indonesia)
Indonesia Manufacturing PMI Rebounds to 52.4, Signaling Renewed Expansion
Indonesia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in September 2026 from 49.8 in August, marking its highest reading since February and signaling a renewed expansion in manufacturing activity. Output and new orders grew at their fastest pace since February, while foreign demand strengthened for a second consecutive month to its highest level since May 2022. Hiring also accelerated, reaching its fastest pace since February 2025, while backlogs rose at their steepest rate in five years. Input purchases increased at the fastest pace since February, although input cost inflation eased to a six-month low. Business confidence remained strongly positive despite moderating slightly. (S&P Global)
SECTOR
Top Foreign Flow – JCI, October 1, 2026
Commodity Price Daily Update October 1, 2026
CORPORATE
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ADHI Sells Stakes in Two Subsidiaries ADHI agreed to sell its 41.18% stake in JMJ to SMI for Rp1.76tr, subject to shareholder approval, and its 51% stake in DTP to FUTR for Rp141bn. Both transactions are expected to be completed by 30 November 2026, with only the JMJ sale classified as a material transaction. (Emiten News)
Danantara Reviews Pertagas-PGAS Structure to Expand Gas Distribution Danantara is reviewing the business structure of state-owned gas companies, including Pertagas and PGAS, with a focus on expanding midstream and downstream activities such as household gas networks. The group is evaluating several consolidation structures, including potential integration between Pertagas and PGAS, while aiming to reduce LPG imports and subsidies by increasing domestic gas utilization. (Kontan) |
