FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Midi Utama Indonesia: Resilient Growth Prospect Despite Macro Headwinds (MIDI.IJ Rp 452; BUY TP Rp 550)

• MIDI should benefit from the rebound in ex-Java store’s SSSG in May, as ~53% of its stores located in ex-Java. 
• We maintain our positive growth outlook with +8.5% and +29.6% yoy revenue and net profit growth forecast in FY25F.
• We reinitiate with a Buy rating and TP of Rp550. Its curr. val of 19.7x PE FY25F seems premium yet we think remains warranted given the growth prospects.

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Reported Retail Sales Grew 2.7% yoy in Aug25 Bank Indonesia reported retail sales grew 2.7% yoy in Aug25, with the Real Sales Index (IPR) at 221.7, supported by auto parts, fuel, and cultural goods. On a monthly basis, retail sales contracted 0.3% mom, an improvement from the 4.1% mom drop in July, helped by food, beverages, tobacco, and clothing. July’s IPR rose 4.7% yoy. Inflation expectations remain stable for October but are projected to rise in Jan26. (Bank Indonesia)   ECB Kept its Deposit Rate Unchanged at 2% The ECB kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2% for the second meeting, signaling a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach as inflation stays close to the 2% target and growth risks ease. President Lagarde said disinflation is over, though uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, trade frictions, and French politics persists. Markets priced out further cuts, lifting bond yields and the euro. New projections see inflation at 2.1% (2025), 1.7% (2026), 1.9% (2027) and GDP growth at 1.2% this year and 1% in 2026, underscoring cautious resilience. (Bloomberg, CNBC)   US Inflation Rising 2.9% yoy in August, Jobless Claims Jump US inflation accelerated in August, with CPI rising 0.4% mom and 2.9% yoy, the fastest since January, while core CPI climbed 0.3% mom and 3.1% annualized, in line with forecasts. Price pressures stemmed from food, electricity, cars, and travel, partly due to Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, jobless claims jumped to 263,000, the highest since 2021, underscoring labor market weakness. Following this backdrop, 10-year Treasury yields fell as investors bet on Fed easing, with markets pricing a 94% chance of a 25 bps cut next week and a smaller risk of 50 bps. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update September 11, 2025

Indonesian Coal Exports Seen Rebounding by Late 2025

Aspebindo expects coal exports to rise by year-end 2025, driven by winter demand in China and India. Despite a 15% drop to 245.5 million tons in January–July, the annual target is seen achievable as late-year momentum and flexible DMO policies could boost both volumes and prices. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

AMRT Boosted by Outside-Java Expansion

AMRT posted Rp63.8tr revenue in 1H25, up 8% yoy, supported by strong outside-Java sales, which grew 16% yoy to Rp12.6tr in 2Q25. This lifted market share to 32.8%, from 30.5% a year earlier. Expansion added 595 new stores, bringing the total to 23,872, with outside-Java outlets now 35.8% of the network with structural profitability advantages from lower costs in tier-2/3 regions, though risks remain from weak purchasing power and rising operating expenses. (Kontan)

 

ERAA Ready to Market iPhone 17 in Indonesia

ERAA, through its retail networks iBox, Erafone, and Urban Republic, signaled readiness to market the iPhone 17 Series in Indonesia, though Apple has yet to include the country in its global launch schedule. Last year, iPhone 16 entered Indonesia seven months late due to TKDN requirements. The iPhone 17 features a 48MP dual Fusion camera, Center Stage front camera, 6.3-inch ProMotion display, Ceramic Shield 2, and the latest A19 chip. (Bisnis)

 

ROTI Gains New Shareholders as Leafgreen–Gateway Acquire 22.2% Stake

ROTI announced that Leafgreen Capital, in partnership with Gateway Partners, has acquired Demeter Indo Investment Pte Ltd, which holds a 22.2% stake in ROTI, from KKR. The deal underscores investor confidence in Indonesia’s consumer sector and ROTI’s market leadership. The mgmt. welcomed the new shareholders, highlighting their sector expertise and long-term vision to drive growth, innovation, and strengthen ROTI’s position as a trusted household brand, while also expressing gratitude for KKR’s eight-year partnership. (Company)

 

Telkomsat, Len Industri Sign MoU to Boost Satellite Defense

Telkomsat and Len Industri signed an MoU to strengthen Indonesia’s defense through satellite-based communication and digital infrastructure, aligning with President Prabowo’s Asta Cita program. The partnership covers Merah Putih 2 satellite capacity, future GSO/NGSO constellation development, command centers, launch facilities, and research hubs, aiming to build a modern, self-reliant satellite ecosystem that enhances national defense and digital sovereignty. (Emiten News)