FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Consumer: 3Q25 Preview: Navigating Modest Revenue Growth Through Cost Discipline (OVERWEIGHT)

• We estimate 3Q25/ 9M25 sector rev. growth of +2.8/+2.9% yoy, in line with ours’ and consensus’ est.
• Opex savings esp. on A&P exp. may help to partially cushion op. profit decline (9M25E: -1.3% yoy) and core profit growth of +3.7% yoy in 9M25E.
• Reiterate our Overweight stance on the sector; ICBP (Buy, TP Rp12,000) remains the top pick in the space.

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Telco: 1.4 GHz Spectrum Auction Nears; 5G FWA Could Reshape Industry Dynamics (OVERWEIGHT)

• The 1.4 GHz spectrum opening for 5G FWA may disrupt mobile economics, with an estimated effective cost per GB ~14× below mobile.
• Recent media reports suggest the 1.4 GHz spectrum fee may come in lower, easing cost pressures and enabling low-priced FWA plans.
• Mobile faces risk, but open access could be a game changer; Maintain OW on 2H25 recovery from price repair and industry consolidation.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Automotive (Overweight): Astra 4W Mkt Share Sharply Rebounds in September

• Indonesia’s 4W industry wholesale volume reached 62.1k units in Sep-25 (-15.1% yoy, flat mom), showing weak post-GIIAS traction. Astra booked 33.5k units (+9.7% mom, -16.4% yoy), lifting monthly market share to 54.0% (vs. 49.5% in Aug), though 9M25 share slipped to 53.0% (vs. 56.2% in 9M24). LCGC sales stayed weak (-30.8% yoy).

 

Our View:

• We see Astra’s market share recovery in Sep-25 as a positive catalyst for the stock. However, this might be tactical, not structural. While discounting remains modest vs. Chinese peers, volume pressure is likely to persist absent new mass-market HEV product, in our view. We maintain our BUY rating with TP Rp6,700, noting TSR clarity and hybrid rollout as the key upside triggers amid soft industry demand. (Nashrullah Putra Sulaeman & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

BRIS (Buy, TP: Rp2,900) - Investor Gathering KTA

Product Focus & Strategic Execution:

“PHE” Strategy (Payroll, Hajj, Gold):

• Payroll: Largest portion of BRIS' financing portfolio.
• Hajj: Hajj accounts have 0% interest rate, thus, provide the bank with low-cost steady fund base.
• Gold: Gold business offers 13% yield, low CoC and provides fee income for the bank.

 

Bundling Hajj and Gold:

• Background: Around 20% of prospective pilgrims fail to depart because their Hajj savings lose value due to inflation.
• Solution: Educate customers and combine Hajj savings with gold investment, as gold preserves asset value against inflation.

 

BRIS’ Gold Business:

• Advantage: Offers excellent yields with near-zero credit costs.
• via Gold: BRIS uses gold products as an “entry door” to attract new customers before cross-selling other banking products.
• Integrated Gold Solutions: BRIS holds a unique competitive edge through its comprehensive gold solution ecosystem, encompassing installment plans, fractional gold purchases, storage, and pawning, an offering that no other competitor in Indonesia currently provides.
• The company will maintain its focus on the gold business line until year-end, supported by its strong growth performance. The operational team has found an effective rhythm after 3–4 months of concentrated work in this segment.
• Stock management: To mitigate risk, physical gold stock management is carried out daily to meet estimated operational needs, in line with sharia principles that require the physical existence of gold.
• According to management, growing investment awareness has made gold a popular entry-level instrument, with investors viewing price declines as buying opportunities rather than a major concern.

 

2H25 Outlook:

• According to management, after a “dark” 1H25, 2H25 has been showing a bright turnaround. Despite rising CoC and CoF during Apr-May25, BRIS navigated these challenges and expects its key performance indicators to continue improving.
• CoF: Management expects CoF to improve, with potential to surpass Dec23 levels. Mgmt indicates that CoF improved to 2.57% in Sep25 (vs. Aug25: 2.65%), driven by hajj savings account.
• Yield: Anticipated to continue rising in line with the aggressive growth of the gold business. Mgmt indicates that financing yield improved to 9.53% in Sep25 (vs. Aug25: 8.57%), driven by gold business.
• Sep25 TPF and Loan Growth: Based on TPF/employee and Financing/employee in Sep25, we estimated TPF and financing growth to be at +5% mom (+15% yoy) and +2% (+13% yoy), respectively. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Retail Sales Grew 3.5% yoy in Aug25 Indonesia’s retail sales grew moderately in August, rising 3.5% yoy—slower than July’s 4.7%—mainly driven by higher clothing sales. On a monthly basis, sales increased 0.6% amid Independence Day demand. BI expects growth to accelerate to 5.8% in September, supported by food, beverages, household goods, and recreation items, though slightly contracting 0.3% mom. Price pressures are seen stable, while sales are projected to rise ahead of year-end holidays. (Bank Indonesia)   Indonesia’s Bank Lending Grew 7.56% yoy in Aug25 Indonesia’s bank lending grew 7.56% yoy to Rp8,075tr in August, accelerating from 7.03% in July but slower than 11.4% in August 2024. Investment loans led with 13.86% growth, followed by consumer (7.89%) and working capital (3.53%) credit. Corporate lending rose 10.79%, while MSME loans grew modestly by 1.35%. Banking liquidity remained ample with a 202.6% LCR. OJK noted lending rates declined following BI’s rate cuts, while credit risk stayed stable with NPL gross at 2.28%. (OJK)⁠

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update October 9, 2025

Indonesian Government Plans to Write Off BPJS Health Premium Arrears

The Indonesian government plans to write off unpaid premiums owed by participants of the national health insurance program (BPJS Kesehatan) to restore full access to healthcare services. As of end-2024, BPJS Kesehatan recorded total arrears of Rp21.48tr, owed by 28.85mn participants. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

CMRY to Distribute Rp793bn Interim Dividend CMRY will distribute an interim dividend of Rp793.5bn or Rp100 per share (yield: 2.1%) to shareholders at the end of October 2025. The company assured that the payout will not materially affect its operations or financial stability. (Bisnis)   JPFA Subsidiary Exports 28,500 Live Chickens worth Rp1.8bn to Singapore PT Indojaya Agrinusa, a subsidiary of Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA), has resumed live chicken exports to Singapore, totaling SGD141,000 (approximately Rp1.8bn). The shipment comprised 28,512 live chickens weighing around 57 tons. (Investor Daily)   PANI Gains Shareholder Approval for Rights Issue and CBDK Acquisition PANI has received shareholder approval to conduct a rights issue and acquire shares in CBDK following its EGMS on October 9, 2025. The company plans to issue up to 1.21bn new shares at a nominal value of Rp100/share. Proceeds from the rights issue will be used to finance the acquisition of up to 44.1% of CBDK shares owned by PT Agung Sedayu and PT Tunas Mekar Jaya, involving 2.5bn shares priced at Rp6,450/share, with a total transaction value of Rp16.12tr. (Kontan)