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FROM EQUITY RESEARCH |
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MAP Active: Riding on the sustainable momentum of sport and athleisure trend; initiate with Buy rating (MAPA.IJ IDR 980 BUY.TP IDR 1.270) · We expect MAPA’s FY24 earnings to be mainly driven by store growth, amid its proven expansion in domestic and regional markets. · We project FY23-25F revenue CAGR of 23.4% (the highest vs peer) & net profit of 18.3% (lower vs AMRT, MIDI with less demanding valuation) · We initiate coverage on MAPA with Buy rating on its strong growth outlook and solid ROE, with TP of Rp1,270 (20x FY24F PE). To see the full version of this report, please click here
Mitra Adi Perkasa: Leading the way in retailing; re-initiate with Buy (MAPI.IJ IDR 1.960 BUY.TP IDR 2.400) · MAPI is a diversified retailer with a proven expansion and productivity execution, having delivered 35% net profit CAGR (in FY17-23F) · With its extensive and growing range of brands, MAPI is well positioned to tap the resilient purchasing power of the middle-up shoppers. · We reinitiate coverage on MAPI with a Buy rating and TP of Rp2,400 on projected strong FY23-25F net profit CAGR of 17.1% To see the full version of this report, please click here
To see the full version of this snapshot, please click here
MARKET NEWS |
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MACROECONOMY
Eurozone Inflation
Eurozone inflation rate is estimated to reach 2.8% yoy in January preliminary number, slightly below Dec’s 2.9% yoy. Price for food, alcohol, and tobacco slowed while energy prices continue to decline annually. Core inflation is estimated to reach 3.3% yoy in January, softening from Dec’s 3.4%. (Trading Economics)
Indonesia Inflation rate Edged Down to 2.57% in Jan24
Inflation in January 2024 registered at 2.57% yoy (compared to Dec's 2.61%) and 0.04% mom, aligning with our projections of 2.54% (Consensus: 2.53%). Unexpectedly, core inflation exhibited a significant deceleration to 1.61% yoy (versus Dec's 1.80%), deviating from our anticipated 1.78% (Cons: 1.81%).
Rice prices contributed 0.56 percentage points to the annual inflation of 2.56%, while other commonly volatile commodities, such as chilis, experienced a relatively deeper decrease (-16% to -26%) monthly compared to January in the years 2020-2023. Overall, volatile inflation accelerated to 7.22% yoy (compared to Dec's 6.73%), exceeding the government's target of below 5% for volatile food in 2024. Administered prices remained stable at 1.74% yoy (vs. 1.72%), aided by lower non-subsidized fuel prices and air transport tariffs. (Indonesia Statistics)
IMF Raises 2024 Global Growth Projection to 3.1%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2024 global growth forecast to 3.1% (Prev: 2.9%), followed by 3.2% expansion for 2025. In addition, the IMF estimates US growth this year at 2.1%, followed by 0.9% in the eurozone and Japan, while the UK grew 0.6%. (Investor Daily)
SECTOR
OPEC+ Continues to Cut Production
OPEC+ signaled that it will continue to cut oil production this quarter as the group seeks to avoid a surplus and raise prices. OPEC and partners have pledged cuts of about 900,000 barrels per day to limit additional production in the first quarter of 2024 as global demand growth slows and rivals' supply continues to rise. Although world oil demand is expected to reach a record of around 103mn barrels per day this year, the pace of growth is slowing, which is being met by a significant increase in supply outside the quarter. (Bisnis)
CORPORATE
AUTO Builds Astra Otopower EV Charging Facility in Astra Property Project
AUTO expands Astra Otopower network through a partnership with Astra Property. AUTO will provide charging facilities for Astra Otopower Battery-Based Electric Vehicles (KBLBB) in several Astra Property projects. Astra Otopower is now present in 4 new Astra Property project locations after previously being present at Menara Astra and Resta Pendopo KM 456B. Currently, Astra Otopower is present in 23 locations on the island of Java, with a total of 26 charger machines. Users can charge for free. Simply scan the QR Code printed on the machine, then sign in. (Kontan)
BRIS 4Q23 Results (based on monthly publication) – above
- BRIS reported net profits of Rp1.5tr in 4Q23 (+9% qoq, +43% yoy), similar to 1Q23 high net profits. The lower provisions of Rp372bn (-37% qoq, -71% yoy) drive the 4Q23 net profits as NII was reported lower at Rp4.3tr (-1% qoq, -3% yoy).
- BRIS`s FY23 net profits were reported at Rp5.7tr (+34% yoy), forming 105% (above) of consensus` FY23 estimate.
- Despite the higher lending balance of Rp240tr (+4% qoq, +16% yoy), the decrease in NII was caused by lower NIM. Our ann. NIM calculation suggests that BRIS`s 4Q23 NIM dropped to 6.0% from 6.2% in 3Q23. The decline in NIM was due to the higher CoF.
- The bank`s CoF rose 21bps qoq to 2.53% in 4Q23, despite the slight increase in CASA ratio (from 59.6 in 3Q23 to 60.6% in 4Q23) suggesting some special rates for wholesale deposits during the quarter, in our view. The deposit balance rose by 12% for both qoq and yoy. (Victor Stefano – BRIDS)
GGRM Injects Capital for Dhoho Airport, Total Rp14tr
GGRM again injected capital into the subsidiary of Dhoho Airport developer in East Java, SDHI, with a value of Rp1tr. SDHI's total issued, and paid-up capital increased to Rp14tr from Rp13tr previously. The company explained that the government and business entity cooperation agreement (PPP) has a period of cooperation of 50 years since the date of phase I commercial operation. Kediri Airport is targeted to operate in Feb24 and is projected to be able to serve wide-body aircraft such as Boeing 777-300ER. (Bisnis)
KLBF: 45-55% Dividend Payout Ratio, New Facilities Groundbreaking and 2024 Profit Growth Target
KLBF plans to pay out dividends with a ratio in the range of 45% - 55% of net profit. Last year it was around 50%. The plan is for KLBF to make dividend payments one month after shareholder approval at the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM) in May 2024.
Furthermore, KLBF, through its subsidiary PT Global Onkolab Farma (GOF), has conducted radioisotope and radiopharmaceutical production facilities groundbreaking with an investment value of Rp150bn-Rp200bn for the purpose of early detection of cancer and is expected to be completed early next year. After groundbreaking the radioisotope and radiopharmaceutical production facility in East Jakarta, KLBF will also build a similar facility in Surabaya with the same investment value. These two cancer-detection equipment production facilities will require capital expenditure of up to Rp400bn from CAPEX of Rp700bn to Rp1tr.
Moreover, KLBF is optimistic that it can achieve double-digit profit growth by 2024, in line with the easing supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. To strengthen sales, KLBF will release 15 to 20 new products, including 7 new medical devices and several generic medicines that are the mainstay of the BPJS program. (Kontan)
TLKM Seeks Strategic Partners for Finpay Divestment
TLKM seeks strategic collaboration as the company tries to divest Finnet Indonesia’s (Finpay) shares. According to TLKM, the divestment is intended to comply with Bank Indonesia regulations. According to TelkomMetra, the holding company of Finnet, the sale of Finnet shares would not necessarily make TelkomMetra exit the fintech business as the company recognizes Fintech’s future potential. Therefore, the company will look for experts to improve Finnet’s capabilities. (Bisnis)
WSKT Draws Loan from BRI Rp3.4tr
WSKT received Rp3.4tr in tactical funds. The funds flowed from BBRI and Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (SMI). The loan fulfills the cash of Trans Jabar Tol (TJT), a subsidiary of Waskita Toll Road (WTR). The transaction value is 24% of the company's equity of Rp14.24tr based on the company's audited consolidated financial statements for 2022. The transaction was motivated by refinancing shareholder loans from SMI as a shareholder of TJT. It was in connection with the repayment of TJT's existing loan facilities and as financing for the construction of the Ciawi-Sukabumi Section III toll road project. (Emiten New
