FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

 

     

Equity Strategy: FY24 Outlook: The road to JCI 8,000

·      JCI’s 13x PE implies room for a rerating if growth improves, while Indonesia’s resilient economic growth offers downside protection.

·      Despite our 7% FY24 EPS growth forecast, we see support from more social aid, better liquidity and the next govt’s growth policies. 

·      We retain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 (+12% upside from the FY23 target); our stock picks are ICBP, MYOR, ISAT, HEAL, BBCA and BMRI. 

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Banks: Moderating FY24 growth, but intact fundamentals shall support high growth to resume in FY25 (OVERWEIGHT)

·            We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.

·            With NIM, CIR and CoC remain in check, and healthy asset quality, we expect big-4 banks’ to resume robust net profit growth in FY25.

·            We reinitiate the banking sector coverage with Overweight rating and BBCA as our top pick in FY24, followed by BMRI

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MARKET NEWS

 

       

SECTOR

Tech: Import restrictions have resulted in a decrease in e-commerce transactions

Central banks expect Rp474tr in e-commerce transaction value in FY23, down from Rp572.3tr in Jan23. E-commerce is expected to expand to Rp487tr (2.74% yoy) and Rp503tr (3.29% yoy) in FY24F. According to Google, Temasek, and Bain Company, the drop in e-commerce has begun to restrict marketing and incentives, as well as prohibiting importation of items worth less than US$100. However, the FY25F remains at US$82bn due to an increase in net income. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

ANTM Focuses on Building a Smelter with a Capacity of 1 Mn Tons/year

At the end of 2023, ANTM was concentrating on developing downstream bauxite commodities by building a Smelter Grade Alumina Refinery (SGAR) factory with a processing capacity up to 1mn tons of SGAR/year and will be built in Menpawah, which is being developed with PT. Inalum. ANTM is completing the company’s strategic projects in 2023, one of which is starting the initial phase of operating the East Halmahera ferronickel plant with a capacity of 13.500TNi/year. In addition, ANTM continuously implements green energy in the company’s operating areas, along with involvement in developing an integrated EV battery ecosystem with strategic partners. (Emiten News)

 

DOID to Distribute Dividends Worth US$5mn

DOID will distribute cash interim dividends worth US$5mn derived from the company’s 9M23 net profit. The distribution of the 2023 interim dividend will be carried out in Rupiah by referring to the BI middle rate on December 12, 2023, as the conversion rate. (CNBC)

 

JSMR to Distribute Dividends of 20% of FY23 Profits

JSMR plans to distribute dividends of 20% of its profit for the year 2023. The plan is dependent on further discussions with the Ministry of SOEs. For information, in 9M23, JSMR posted a revenue of Rp14.08tr (+20.1% yoy) and a net profit of Rp5.97tr. (Kontan)

 

TLKM to Distribute Dividends with a Payout Ratio of Around 60-80%

TLKM ensures that it will distribute dividends with a dividend payout ratio target of around 60-80% of FY23 net profit. According to TLKM, the company is still consistent with the projection that financial performance will grow from low to mid-single digits until the end of the year. For information, TLKM closed 3Q23 with a net profit of Rp19.5tr (+17.6% yoy). (Emiten News)

 

UNTR’s Subsidiary Disbursed Loans to Nickel Business

UNTR’s subsidiary, Pamapersada Nusantara, disbursed loans to UNTR’s business unit in the nickel business, namely Stargate Dua Pacific Resources. Stargate will use the loan with a maximum amount of US$10mn for payment of costs incurred due to the termination of the royalty agreement with Energy Persada Khatulistiwa. The interest charged on this loan is the term Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) + 2% per annum for a period of 60 months. (Kontan)