Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)
2Q25 Results: In Line Earnings Underpinned by Solid Loan Growth
- BBCA's 2Q25 net profit rose 5% qoq/ 6% yoy, bringing 1H25 NP to Rp29.0tr (+8% yoy), in line with our/cons est. at 50% of FY25F.
- Management raised FY25F CoC guidance to 0.3-0.5% while maintaining loan growth and NIM guidance at 6-8% yoy and 5.7-5.8%, respectively.
- We maintain Buy rating on BBCA with an unchanged TP of Rp11,900. BBCA remains our top pick in the sector.
2Q25: Earnings Resilience Backed by NII Strength
BBCA delivered a solid 2Q25 results, with net profit growing 5% qoq and 6% yoy to Rp14.9tr, supported by a 2% qoq and 7% yoy increase in NII. The bank managed to reduce opex by 4% qoq, helping cushion margin compression from rising CoF. NIM declined slightly to 6.2% (-2bps qoq, -10bps yoy), as CoF rose to 1.2% (+5bps qoq). Deposit growth was stable at 6% yoy, while CASA improved to 83.0%, supporting funding resilience. Loan growth was driven by the corporate segment (+13% yoy), though management remains cautious on the consumer and SME segments, maintaining FY25 guidance at 6–8%.
1H25: Robust Performance with Sector-Leading Asset Quality
BBCA recorded 8% yoy net profit growth to Rp29.0tr in 1H25, in line with our/cons expectations at 50% of FY25F est. Strong NII growth (+7% yoy) was supported by robust loan expansion and an improved asset mix. Despite this, NIM compressed slightly to 6.2% due to lower loan yields and higher CoF. Operating efficiency improved, with CIR declining to 33.3% (-92bps yoy) on the back of rising income. Asset quality remained sound, despite CoC rising to 0.4% and NPL ticking up to 2.1%, as BBCA's NPL is still the lowest among peers.
Revised FY25F CoC Guidance
Management maintained its FY25 loan growth guidance at 6–8% and bank-only NIM at 5.7–5.8% but revised up its CoC guidance to 0.3–0.5% from 0.3% previously. Provisioning is expected to remain elevated, factoring in forward-looking risks and sector-specific exposures. Nonetheless, BBCA’s strong CASA base and disciplined underwriting continue to support its premium positioning. We believe 2H25 performance will hinge on effective margin management and sustained asset quality leadership.
Maintain Buy with a TP of Rp11,900
We maintain our Buy rating with a TP of Rp11,900, derived from GGM with a 6.5% CoE (5-year average) and 21.4% FY25F ROE, which implies an FV PBV of 5.2x. BBCA remains our top pick for its strong liquidity, resilient CoF, and solid asset quality. Risks to our view include asset quality deterioration.
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