Bank BTPN Syariah (BTPS IJ)
FY25 Results: Missing Estimates on Elevated CoC Due to One-off
- BTPS posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp255bn, bringing FY25 NP to Rp1.2tr (+13% yoy), below our/cons ests. on higher opex and 4Q25 CoC.
- Mgmt guides for positive loan growth in FY26F and net profit to grow in high single digit, supported by lower CoC despite a higher CIR.
- Maintain a Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp1,400 based on 2-year avg. CoE of 12.9% and FY26F RoE of 13.2%, implying FV PBV of 1.0x.
Below-expectation FY25 on higher opex and credit costs
BTPS booked FY25 net profit of Rp1.2tr (+13% yoy), below our and consensus estimates (95/ 96% of FY25F) due to higher opex and higher 4Q25 CoC. In FY25, CoC improved to 8.6% (8.1% excluding start-up provisions) from 12.6% in FY24, reflecting better BAU asset quality. NIM declined 85bps to 23.7% as LDR fell by ~200bps despite stable EA yield and CoF. PPOP dropped 11% yoy, driven by lower NII and higher opex, with CIR rising ~400bps to ~49%. NPL improved to 2.6% with 328% coverage, but LaR increased to 7.1% due to ~Rp300bn of restructured loans related to the Sumatera flooding impact.
Weaker 4Q25 on provisioning and restructuring impact
BTPS posted net profit of Rp255bn in 4Q25 (-15% qoq, -12% yoy), mainly due to provisions for the Sumatera impact and start-up investment. Excluding these, CoC would have been 5.1% versus the reported 9.7%, with part of 9M25 buffers utilized. NIM fell to 23.0% as EA yield weakened, driven by Rp302bn of restructured loans in Sumatera. Management expects ~40% of this portfolio to be resolved within three months and the remainder within 12 months, implying yield pressure into 1Q26. NPL improved to 2.6%, while LaR rose to 7.1% and write-offs declined to Rp189bn.
FY26 guidance points to gradual normalization
Management guides for a positive loan growth, supported by the launch of a soft-collateral product in 2H26. Net profit is expected to grow in the high single digits, driven by lower CoC despite slightly higher CIR. Fee-based income is projected to increase through Sukuk, bancassurance, and cash waqf deposits. Liquid assets will be allocated into NBFI financing to enhance yields with manageable CoC. Overall, easing one-offs and improving BAU asset quality should support a more normalized earnings profile in FY26.
Maintain BUY rating with a lower TP of Rp1,400
We maintain our Buy rating and a lower TP of Rp1,400 (from Rp1,600 prev.) based on 2-year avg. CoE of 12.9% and FY26F RoE of 13.2%, implying an FV PBV of 1.0x, post tweaking FY26/27F by -2/0%. Risks to our view is deteriorating asset quality. Tactical (3M) view: N. Short-term risk on restructured loan to fall into non-performing loan.
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