Astra International (ASII.IJ Rp6,525; BUY TP Rp7,450) 3Q25 Marks Earnings Bottom; FY26F Recovery Driven by Auto and FinSer

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
POLU	24.100	4.000	19,90%
MORA	9.725	875	9,89%
BLUE	3.810	690	22,12%
FILM	10.975	500	4,77%
DATA	4.580	430	10,36%
COIN	3.880	410	11,82%
PTRO	10.750	375	3,61%
ROCK	1.655	330	24,91%

Astra International (ASII IJ)

3Q25 Marks Earnings Bottom; FY26F Recovery Driven by Auto and FinSer

We raised FY26F net profit by +5% to Rp32.8tr, reflecting stronger Automotive margins as Astra’s brand strength limit discounting.
Seasonally strong Nov-Dec 4W industry volume should reinforce the recovery momentum.
Maintain Buy rating with higher TP of Rp7,450 (9.2x FY26F P/E; +1SD), backed by a ~7% dividend yield.

9M25 beat estimates on stronger Auto and FinSer, confidence building up

ASII’s 3Q25 results showed improving profitability in Automotive and Financial Services, offsetting weaker earnings at UNTR. Consolidated net profit reached Rp8.9tr (+4% qoq, –10% yoy), bringing 9M25 to Rp24.4tr (–5% yoy), or 82% of FY25F, tracking ahead of seasonality. Automotive operating profit rose +5% qoq to Rp316bn on stronger 4W volume (96.1k units, +5% qoq), while FinSer earnings grew +6% qoq to Rp2.5tr with stable margins. Management also announced a Rp2tr share buyback for Nov25 to Jan26, signaling confidence and supporting shareholder returns.

We raise our earnings on stronger auto margins assumptions

We lift our FY25–26F net profit forecasts by +5.4%/+5.1% to Rp31.5tr and Rp32.8tr, driven by higher 4W net margin assumptions while keeping revenue broadly unchanged at Rp322tr and Rp350tr. This implies FY25/26F net profit growth of –7.3%/+4.1% yoy. We now expect 4W net margins to improve to 4.8%/5.3% (from 4.3%/4.8%) on stronger pricing and a +4–5% rebound in 4W sales. Despite the ongoing EV price war, discounting for Astra’s brand remains limited (Exhibit 11) as it maintains strong pricing power and its hybrid lineup offers a differentiated alternative to BEVs, a segment that is currently facing the heaviest price cuts.

Maintain Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp7,450

We maintain our Buy rating with a higher SOTP-based TP of Rp7,450, implying 9.2x FY26F P/E (at +1SD), reflecting our raised UNTR TP to Rp32,200 (from Rp23,800) and stronger Automotive earnings. We believe the +1SD premium is justified given (1) ASII’s margins are rebased higher on disciplined pricing and limited discounting, (2) earnings visibility is improving as 4W volumes bottom out and ASPs hold firm. ASII now trades at 8.0x FY26F P/E, in line with its 5-year average of 7.6x. The stock is up +31% YTD, yet we still see room for upside as seasonally strong November–December 4W sales should reaffirm the recovery momentum.

… Read More 20251112 ASII