Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ)
Riding on Sustained Strength in Ni Ore and Gold Px
- Despite a more conservative 2H25 operational outlook, we expect favorable Ni ore and gold prices to continue support FY25-26 earnings.
- We raise our FY25-27F net profit forecast by 22.2-46.3% to reflect higher ore and gold price assumptions.
- We maintain Buy rating with higher TP of Rp4,100 given steady earnings outlook and on track growth projects development.
Intact key operational performances; support from Ni ore and gold prices
ANTM sold 8.2mn wmt (+144.3% yoy) of nickel ore in 1H25, forming 55.0% of our FY25F forecast, driven by a steady 2Q25 volume delivery of 4.4mn wmt (+14.0% qoq). Gold sales volume grew 83.5% yoy to 29.3 tonnes in 1H25, driven by strong 2Q25 volume of 15.6 t (+13.3% qoq). Its revenue continued to be supported by a healthy nickel ore ASP of US$55/t in 2Q25. Meanwhile, strong gold price and demand for gold products supported margin for gold sales business to remain at 6.5-7%.
A more conservative 2H25, but steady FY26 operational outlook
ANTM’s management guided for a more conservative operational outlook in 2H25, with: 1) nickel ore production run-rate of 1-1.2mn wmt/ month (vs. 1.5mn wmt/ month in 1H25), taking into consideration the temporary closure of Gag Nikel. This should translate to 15-16mn wmt in FY25. 2) Gold sales volume run-rate of 1.5-2.0 t/ month (vs. 2.5 t/ month in 1H25), taking into account the policy to prioritize domestic sourcing. For FY26, management sees the potential for nickel ore sales volume to remain at 16mn wmt, although this still hinges on the RKAB approval, and gold sales volume at around 43-44 tonnes.
Raising FY25-27F forecast on higher gold and Ni ore price assumptions
We raise our FY25-27F net profit forecast by 22.2-46.3%, taking into account the following: 1) higher gold price assumptions of US$3300-3400/oz (vs. US$2900-3000/oz previously). 2) higher nickel ore price assumptions of US$51/t, with nickel ore price and premium proving resilient at US$52.2/t and US$23.7/t in 3Q25.
Maintain Buy rating with higher TP of Rp4,100
We maintain Buy rating on ANTM, with a higher TP of Rp4,100, based on 12.6x forward PE (its 10-year mean vs. our target multiple of 11x previously). We believe ANTM deserves to trade at its 10-year mean PE given its steady earnings outlook, supported by on-track operational performance and resilient nickel ore and gold prices. Meanwhile, its key growth projects (Exh. 5) are also on track, translating to potential value accretion in the next 3 years. Key risks are: RKAB and nickel ore production misses, and weaker gold and nickel ore prices.
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